Contact | RSS Feed

Stock Market Outlook for February 1, 2019


S&P 500 has realized gains in just over half (56%) of Februarys with returns averaging 0.2%.

 

Real Time Economic Calendar provided by Investing.com.

 

*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities.   As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.

Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:

M/I Homes, Inc. (NYSE:MHO) Seasonal Chart

M/I Homes, Inc. (NYSE:MHO) Seasonal Chart

Chevron Corp. (NYSE:CVX) Seasonal Chart

Chevron Corp. (NYSE:CVX) Seasonal Chart

Stage Stores, Inc. (NYSE:SSI) Seasonal Chart

Stage Stores, Inc. (NYSE:SSI) Seasonal Chart

PACCAR, Inc. (NASD:PCAR) Seasonal Chart

PACCAR, Inc. (NASD:PCAR) Seasonal Chart

Ford Motor Co. (NYSE:F) Seasonal Chart

Ford Motor Co. (NYSE:F) Seasonal Chart

Yum! Brands Inc. (NYSE:YUM) Seasonal Chart

Yum! Brands Inc. (NYSE:YUM) Seasonal Chart

Rent-A-Center, Inc. (NASD:RCII) Seasonal Chart

Rent-A-Center, Inc. (NASD:RCII) Seasonal Chart

McCormick & Co., Inc. (NYSE:MKC) Seasonal Chart

McCormick & Co., Inc. (NYSE:MKC) Seasonal Chart

 

 

 

The Markets

Stocks closed out the month of January on a positive note with the S&P 500 Index adding close to nine-tenths of one percent, testing its 100-day moving average at the highs of the day.  For the month, the large-cap benchmark was higher by 7.87%, achieving the best January gain since 1987 when the index returned 13.18%.  The benchmark is hovering around its rising 20-month moving average, which tracks fairly close to the 100 and 200-day moving averages, important pivot points to the longer-term trend.  Despite the strong move, the monthly candlestick fails to confirm that the market has escaped this negative trend that the benchmark has been in throughout the past four months.

image

Looking forward, the S&P 500 Index has averaged a gain of 0.2% in the month of February with just over half (56%) of periods over the past 50 years showing gains. Returns have ranged from a loss of 11.0% in February of 2009 to a gain of 7.1% in February of 1986. The average pattern for the month shows that the market tends to gain in the first half of the period then decline in the back half. Through the first 16 calendar days of February, the S&P 500 Index has gained an average of 0.53% with 60% of periods showing positive results, while the rest of the month has averaged a loss of 0.35% with 54% of periods showing declines. Typically, by the middle of February the vast majority of earnings reports have been released and the vacuum of fundamental catalysts leads to the drift lower in stocks.  To receive a copy of our February market outlook that provides greater insight of the tendencies in the month ahead, simply subscribe to Equity Clock via the following link: https://charts.equityclock.com/subscribe

image

On the economic front, the significantly delayed US New Home Sales report for November was released on Thursday. The headline print indicated that sales of new homes increased by 16.9% in the second to last month of the year to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 657,000, beating estimates, by a wide margin, that called for a 0.4% decline to 560,000. Stripping out the seasonal adjustments, new home sales actually increased by 9.1% in the second to last month of the year, which is much stronger than the 10.3% decline that is average for the month. The year-to-date change now sits higher by 6.7%, which is above the seasonal norm that calls for a 1.7% rise through the end of November.  Subscribers of Equity Clock received intraday reports on New Home Sales, Jobless Claims, and Canada GDP, including updates to relevant seasonal trades that are applicable to each.  Subscribe now to learn more.

New Home Sales Seasonal Chart

Monthly New Home Sales Data

This morning Statscan provided the latest look at the health of the overall Canadian economy by way of the monthly GDP report. The headline print indicated that Canadian Gross Domestic Product declined by 0.1% in November, which is better than the 0.2% decline that was forecasted by analysts. Stripping out the seasonal adjustments, GDP in this country actually declined by 0.7%, which is weaker than the 0.3% decline that is average for the second to last month of the year. The year-to-date change now sits at +4.5%, which is below the 5.3% increase that is average by this point in the year.

Canada GDP - All industries Seasonal Chart

Monthly Canada GDP - All industries Data

Sentiment on Thursday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.84.

image

 

 

 

Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:

Aon plc (AON) Seasonal Chart Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Corporation (BAH) Seasonal Chart Chevron Corporation (CVX) Seasonal Chart Cigna Corporation (CI) Seasonal Chart Dominion Energy, Inc. (D) Seasonal Chart Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) Seasonal Chart Honda Motor Company, Ltd. (HMC) Seasonal Chart Honeywell International Inc. (HON) Seasonal Chart IDEXX Laboratories, Inc. (IDXX) Seasonal Chart Illinois Tool Works Inc. (ITW) Seasonal Chart Imperial Oil Limited (IMO) Seasonal Chart Johnson Controls International plc (JCI) Seasonal Chart LyondellBasell Industries NV (LYB) Seasonal Chart Merck & Company, Inc. (MRK) Seasonal Chart Norbord Inc. (OSB) Seasonal Chart Roper Technologies, Inc. (ROP) Seasonal Chart Simon Property Group, Inc. (SPG) Seasonal Chart Sony Corp Ord (SNE) Seasonal Chart  Weatherford International plc (WFT) Seasonal Chart Weyerhaeuser Company (WY) Seasonal Chart Zimmer Biomet Holdings, Inc. (ZBH) Seasonal Chart

 

 

S&P 500 Index

image

image

 

 

TSE Composite

image

image

 

Sponsored By...
Seasonal Advantage Portfolio by CastleMoore

Comments are closed.