Contact | RSS Feed

Stock Market Outlook for January 31, 2019


S&P 500 Index back to the upper limit of a declining megaphone pattern.

 

Real Time Economic Calendar provided by Investing.com.

 

*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities.   As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.

Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:

Adobe Systems, Inc. (NASD:ADBE) Seasonal Chart

Adobe Systems, Inc. (NASD:ADBE) Seasonal Chart

Progressive Corp. (NYSE:PGR) Seasonal Chart

Progressive Corp. (NYSE:PGR) Seasonal Chart

EnerSys Inc. (NYSE:ENS) Seasonal Chart

EnerSys Inc. (NYSE:ENS) Seasonal Chart

Canadian Tire Corp, Ltd. (TSE:CTC/A.TO) Seasonal Chart

Canadian Tire Corp, Ltd. (TSE:CTC/A.TO) Seasonal Chart

Comerica, Inc. (NYSE:CMA) Seasonal Chart

Comerica, Inc. (NYSE:CMA) Seasonal Chart

Tyson Foods Inc Cl A (NYSE:TSN) Seasonal Chart

Tyson Foods Inc Cl A (NYSE:TSN) Seasonal Chart

 

 

The Markets

Stocks in the US closed strongly higher on Wednesday as investors digested dovish statements from Fed Chair Jerome Powell.  Following the their two-day policy meeting, the FOMC indicated that it would be patient with future rate adjustments given muted inflationary pressures and global economic developments.  The S&P 500 Index surged by 1.55%, continuing to claw back the losses recorded in the month prior.  The benchmark broke above the recent short-term consolidation range between 2625 and 2675, but a new hurdle is directly overhead.  At the highs of Wednesday’s session, the large-cap benchmark tested declining trendline resistance that connects the peaks from the October high.  The declining level of resistance also forms the upper limit to a declining megaphone pattern, the lower limit of which was tested on Christmas Eve.  We’ll have to watch in the days ahead to see if the benchmark reacts to this overhanging hurdle, thereby maintaining the pattern.  The declining 100-day moving average, the level from which the benchmark declined from in November and December, also warrants monitoring.

image

On Tuesday, the latest look at US home prices was released by way of the Case-Shiller Home Price Index.  The headline print indicated that home prices in the 20 largest US cities had increased by 0.3% in November,  weaker than the 0.4% increase forecasted by analysts.  Stripping out the seasonal adjustments, home prices actually declined by 0.1%, missing estimates that called for a rise of 0.2%.  The year-to-date change now sits at +4.5%, which is just marginally above the 4.1% average increase by this point in the year.  This is the second weakest year-to-date change since 2011.  The 10-largest (and most expensive) cities, including Los Angeles, San Diego,  San Francisco, New York, Miami, and Washington, are weighing on the national result; the 10-city index is showing a year-to-date change that is 1.3% below its seasonal average trend.  Aside for some exceptions, such as Atlanta and North Carolina, momentum with respect to prices in the housing market is showing clear signs of slowing.  Of course, this is just another signal that the housing market is weakening, typical of a late stage economy.  Seasonally, home prices tend to flat-line through the winter months then shoot higher in the spring as buyers enter the market.  For a breakdown of each of the cities covered in the report, the charts are available in the database at the following link: https://charts.equityclock.com/sp-corelogic-case-shiller-home-price-index-city-breakdown

S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index Seasonal Chart

Monthly S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index Data

S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index© Seasonal Chart S&P/Case-Shiller 10-City Composite Home Price Index© Seasonal Chart

Encouraging signs pertaining to the supply of petroleum in the US. Following a number of weeks of significant injections, whether it be to the raw input or product inventories, the latest week showed a net withdrawal of petroleum inventories, helped by a drop off in the level of oil imports and a surge in the level of product supplied of gasoline. The headline print indicated that oil stockpiles increased by 919,000 barrels, while gasoline saw a draw of 2.2 million barrels. Distillates were also lower by 1.1 million barrels. The result increased the level of days of supply of oil by half of a day to 26.1, while gasoline saw its days of supply fall by a full day to 28.8. For gasoline, this is now the second highest level of days of supply in the past two decades; albeit elevated, it is hinting of signs of returning to more normal levels. The average level of days of supply of gasoline for this time of year is 27.0. Seasonally, this indicator, which shows the confluence of supply and demand, peaks in the first half of February, on average, but the abrupt shift in this late January week could be hinting of an earlier than average peak. We’ll monitor the trend as new data is released in the coming weeks. Further analysis pertaining to the state of petroleum inventories in the US was released to Equity Clock subscribers during Wednesday’s session.  Join now to receive this and future research and analysis directly in your inbox: https://charts.equityclock.com/subscribe

Weekly U.S. Days of Supply of Crude Oil excluding SPR  (Number of Days) Seasonal Chart

Weekly U.S. Days of Supply of Total Gasoline  (Number of Days) Seasonal Chart

Sentiment on Wednesday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.89.

image

 

 

 

Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:

1-800 FLOWERS.COM, Inc. (FLWS) Seasonal Chart ABIOMED, Inc. (ABMD) Seasonal Chart Aflac Incorporated (AFL) Seasonal Chart Altria Group (MO) Seasonal Chart Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) Seasonal Chart AmerisourceBergen Corporation (Holding Co) (ABC) Seasonal Chart Apollo Global Management, LLC (APO) Seasonal Chart Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) Seasonal Chart Baker Hughes, a GE company (BHGE) Seasonal Chart Ball Corporation (BLL) Seasonal Chart Baxter International Inc. (BAX) Seasonal Chart Bemis Company, Inc. (BMS) Seasonal Chart Brunswick Corporation (BC) Seasonal Chart Camden Property Trust (CPT) Seasonal Chart Celestica, Inc. (CLS) Seasonal Chart Celgene Corporation (CELG) Seasonal Chart Charter Communications, Inc. (CHTR) Seasonal Chart CMS Energy Corporation (CMS) Seasonal Chart ConocoPhillips (COP) Seasonal Chart DowDuPont Inc. (DWDP) Seasonal Chart Eastman Chemical Company (EMN) Seasonal Chart Eaton Corporation, PLC (ETN) Seasonal Chart Edwards Lifesciences Corporation (EW) Seasonal Chart General Electric Company (GE) Seasonal Chart Hershey Company (The) (HSY) Seasonal Chart International Paper Company (IP) Seasonal Chart Kimco Realty Corporation (KIM) Seasonal Chart Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. (MMC) Seasonal Chart Mastercard Incorporated (MA) Seasonal Chart McKesson Corporation (MCK) Seasonal Chart Monro, Inc. (MNRO) Seasonal Chart Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC) Seasonal Chart Open Text Corporation (OTEX) Seasonal Chart Raytheon Company (RTN) Seasonal Chart Royal Dutch Shell PLC (RDS.A) Seasonal Chart Sherwin-Williams Company (The) (SHW) Seasonal Chart Sprint Corporation (S) Seasonal Chart Symantec Corporation (SYMC) Seasonal Chart United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) Seasonal Chart Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) Seasonal Chart Xcel Energy Inc. (XEL) Seasonal Chart Xylem Inc. (XYL) Seasonal Chart 

 

 

S&P 500 Index

image

image

 

 

TSE Composite

image

image

 

Sponsored By...
Seasonal Advantage Portfolio by CastleMoore

Comments are closed.