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Stock Market Outlook for January 28, 2019

Benchmarks around the globe retaking levels back above 50-day moving averages.


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*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities.   As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.

Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:

Dover Corporation  (NYSE:DOV) Seasonal Chart

Dover Corporation (NYSE:DOV) Seasonal Chart

Praxair, Inc.  (NYSE:PX) Seasonal Chart

Praxair, Inc. (NYSE:PX) Seasonal Chart

Microchip Technology Inc.  (NASDAQ:MCHP) Seasonal Chart

Microchip Technology Inc. (NASDAQ:MCHP) Seasonal Chart

C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc.  (NASDAQ:CHRW) Seasonal Chart

C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. (NASDAQ:CHRW) Seasonal Chart

The Stars Group Inc. (TSE:TSGI) Seasonal Chart

The Stars Group Inc. (TSE:TSGI) Seasonal Chart

Mattel, Inc.  (NASDAQ:MAT) Seasonal Chart

Mattel, Inc. (NASDAQ:MAT) Seasonal Chart



The Markets

Stocks closed higher on Friday amidst renewed risk sentiment as the Trump administration agreed to a continuing resolution that would reopen the government for the next three weeks.  The S&P 500 Index closed higher by over eight-tenths of one percent, continuing to hold above its 50-day moving average.  Still, Friday’s return was not enough to achieve a fifth straight week of gains for the large-cap benchmark; the index closed lower for the week by around two-tenths of a percent, realizing an inside week versus the week prior.  Buying exhaustion is suggested.  The benchmark remains within arms reach of a major hurdle around 100 and 200-day moving averages, a level that both long and short-term investors will be monitoring.  The week ahead will prove to be pivotal with earnings from bellwether companies, the next US-China trade talk, and the Fed meeting, providing a number of catalysts for investors to react to.  With stocks rebounding so sharply from the December low, the bulls have much to prove and any misstep could reignite the negative sentiment seen in the fourth quarter of last year.


Looking globally, the US isn’t the only country to see its equity benchmarks retake levels above the 50-day moving average.  France and Germany saw their benchmarks gap above this significant intermediate hurdle on Friday, and Shanghai inched above the equivalent variable level.  All three benchmarks had shown clear resistance at this hurdle in the back half of 2018, but improving risk sentiment has broken down the barrier.  These benchmarks are good proxies of developed and emerging market benchmarks worldwide, which are showing the signs of intermediate bottoming patterns.  Momentum indicators have been positively diverging from price over the past few months, an indication of renewed buying demand.  Seasonally, both developed and emerging market benchmarks remain in a period of seasonal strength through to May.


DAX Index Seasonal Chart


CAC 40 Index Seasonal Chart


SSE Composite Index Seasonal Chart

Sentiment on Friday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.75.  This is the lowest level since last August, an indication that complacency is continuing to make its way back into the market.





Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:

AK Steel Holding Corporation (AKS) Seasonal Chart Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. (ARLP) Seasonal Chart Bank of Hawaii Corporation (BOH) Seasonal Chart Bank of Marin Bancorp (BMRC) Seasonal Chart Brown & Brown, Inc. (BRO) Seasonal Chart  Caterpillar, Inc. (CAT) Seasonal Chart Celanese Corporation (CE) Seasonal Chart Chemical Financial Corporation (CHFC) Seasonal Chart Crane Co. (CR) Seasonal Chart Equity Lifestyle Properties, Inc. (ELS) Seasonal Chart Ethan Allen Interiors Inc. (ETH) Seasonal Chart Graco Inc. (GGG) Seasonal Chart Heartland Financial USA, Inc. (HTLF) Seasonal Chart Independent Bank Group, Inc (IBTX) Seasonal Chart Integrated Device Technology, Inc. (IDTI) Seasonal Chart J & J Snack Foods Corp. (JJSF) Seasonal Chart  Meta Financial Group, Inc. (CASH) Seasonal Chart Opus Bank (OPB) Seasonal Chart Orix Corp Ads (IX) Seasonal Chart  Provident Financial Holdings, Inc. (PROV) Seasonal Chart Rambus, Inc. (RMBS) Seasonal Chart  Reinsurance Group of America, Incorporated (RGA) Seasonal Chart Sanmina Corporation (SANM) Seasonal Chart Scorpio Bulkers Inc. (SALT) Seasonal Chart South State Corporation (SSB) Seasonal Chart Veritex Holdings, Inc. (VBTX) Seasonal Chart WesBanco, Inc. (WSBC) Seasonal Chart Whirlpool Corporation (WHR) Seasonal Chart Woodward, Inc. (WWD) Seasonal Chart



S&P 500 Index





TSE Composite




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