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Stock Market Outlook for December 7, 2018

S&P 500 Index opens another gap between 2685 and 2700.

 

Real Time Economic Calendar provided by Investing.com.

 

*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities.   As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.

Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:

Northland Power Inc. (TSE:NPI) Seasonal Chart

Northland Power Inc. (TSE:NPI) Seasonal Chart

Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. (NYSE:PAA) Seasonal Chart

Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. (NYSE:PAA) Seasonal Chart

Allscripts Healthcare Solutions Inc (NASDAQ:MDRX) Seasonal Chart

Allscripts Healthcare Solutions Inc (NASDAQ:MDRX) Seasonal Chart

Semafo Inc.  (TSE:SMF) Seasonal  Chart

Semafo Inc. (TSE:SMF) Seasonal Chart

Sherritt International Corporation  (TSE:S) Seasonal Chart

Sherritt International Corporation (TSE:S) Seasonal Chart

Suncor Energy Inc.  (TSE:SU) Seasonal Chart

Suncor Energy Inc. (TSE:SU) Seasonal Chart

Precision Drilling Corporation (TSE:PD) Seasonal Chart

Precision Drilling Corporation (TSE:PD) Seasonal Chart

Quebecor, Inc. (TSE:QBR.B) Seasonal Chart

Quebecor, Inc. (TSE:QBR.B) Seasonal Chart

Prairie Provident Resources (TSE:PPR) Seasonal Chart

Prairie Provident Resources (TSE:PPR) Seasonal Chart

Essential Energy Services (TSE:ESN) Seasonal Chart

Essential Energy Services (TSE:ESN) Seasonal Chart

Canadian Natural Resources Limited  (TSE:CNQ) Seasonal Chart

Canadian Natural Resources Limited (TSE:CNQ) Seasonal Chart

ATCO Ltd. (TSE:ACO.X) Seasonal Chart

ATCO Ltd. (TSE:ACO.X) Seasonal Chart

Norbord Inc (TSE:OSB) Seasonal Chart

Norbord Inc (TSE:OSB) Seasonal Chart

Vermilion Energy Trust  (TSE:VET) Seasonal Chart

Vermilion Energy Trust (TSE:VET) Seasonal Chart

Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd.  (TSE:AEM) Seasonal Chart

Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd. (TSE:AEM) Seasonal Chart

Hess Corp.  (NYSE:HES) Seasonal Chart

Hess Corp. (NYSE:HES) Seasonal Chart

Husky Energy Inc.  (TSE:HSE) Seasonal Chart

Husky Energy Inc. (TSE:HSE) Seasonal Chart

Sherwin-Williams Company  (NYSE:SHW) Seasonal Chart

Sherwin-Williams Company (NYSE:SHW) Seasonal Chart

Hudbay Minerals Inc. (NYSE:HBM) Seasonal Chart

Hudbay Minerals Inc. (NYSE:HBM) Seasonal Chart

Toronto-Dominion Bank  (TSE:TD) Seasonal Chart

Toronto-Dominion Bank (TSE:TD) Seasonal Chart

 

 

The Markets

Wild day for stocks saw major benchmarks in the US trade lower by over 3% during the morning session only to reverse and end near the flatline by the closing bell.  The S&P 500 Index finished the day down by 0.15%, attempting to close the gap that started the session around 2700.  Once again, the 2685 to 2700 range is proving to be a major pivot point going into another potentially market moving event: November’s payroll report.  Analysts are forecasting payrolls to grow by 190,000 for November, down from the 250,000 increase reported previous. The average increase for the month is 0.2%, which if realized would equate to an actual addition of 301,506 (NSA). Payroll growth in 2018 has been firmly above average as employers seek to get their hands on the labor required to expand.  Equity Clock Subscribers received an intraday update on jobless claims ahead of this report.  Want to receive Equity Clock’s fundamental, technical, and seasonal research and analysis delivered right to your inbox?  Simply subscribe to either the monthly or yearly option and enjoy all of the benefits that membership provides.

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Total Nonfarm Seasonal Chart

Monthly Total Nonfarm Data

On the economic front, a report on US Factory Orders indicated a rather pronounced decline on the headline print. The 2.1% seasonally adjusted decline for the month is the weakest month-over-month change in over a year, adding further ammunition for economic pessimists that are arguing a pronounced slowdown in recent months. Analysts had forecasted a 2.0% decline for the month. Stripping out the seasonal adjustments, factory orders were actually lower by 0.7% in October, which is stronger than the 1.6% decline that is average for this time of year. The result puts the year-to-date change at +7.2%, which is still the best pace since 2010. The average change by this point in the year is +3.6%. Looking from a high level, transportation orders, particularly in defense, weighed on the aggregate result for the month. Factory orders excluding transportation, were higher by 2.4% in October, positively diverging from the 1.5% average decline for this time of year. The decline defense aircraft orders in October following a surge in the month of September is responsible.  Subscribers to our service received further insight on the important gauge of manufacturing activity in the US, as well as the investment implications.  You can access the charts in this report via the chart database at https://charts.equityclock.com/u-s-factory-orders.

Value of Manufacturers' New Orders for All Manufacturing Industries Seasonal Chart

Monthly Value of Manufacturers' New Orders for All Manufacturing Industries Data

And finally for today, a report on merchandise trade in Canada showed that the deficit expanded in October, now at $1.2 Billion from $0.4 Billion previous.  The headline print indicated that exports declined by 1.6% in the month, while imports declined by 0.6%.  Stripping out the seasonal adjustments, exports actually increased by 6.3%, while imports increased by 4.9%.  The average change for each in the month is +3.7% and +4.1%, respectively.  The result puts the year-to-date change for exports firmly above average, while imports lag their seasonal average trend.  The weak Canadian dollar is no doubt a factor.  Seasonally, both imports and exports decline into the start of the winter season as manufacturing activity winds down.  To obtain a deeper dive as to what is driving the results, the seasonal charts have been uploaded to the database at https://charts.equityclock.com/canadian-international-merchandise-trade-exports-imports.

Total Canadian Exports of all merchandise Seasonal Chart

Monthly Total Canadian Exports of all merchandise Data

Total Canadian Imports of all merchandise Seasonal Chart

Monthly Total Canadian Imports of all merchandise Data

Sentiment on Thursday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bearish at 1.12.

 

 

 

Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:

Big Lots, Inc. (BIG) Seasonal Chart Johnson Outdoors Inc. (JOUT) Seasonal Chart Vail Resorts, Inc. (MTN) Seasonal Chart

 

 

S&P 500 Index

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TSE Composite

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