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Stock Market Outlook for November 6, 2018

Despite taking an alternate path, the performance of the equity market this year remains inline with the average mid-term election year performance.

 

Real Time Economic Calendar provided by Investing.com.

 

*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities.   As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.

Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:

USA Truck, Inc. (NASD:USAK) Seasonal Chart

USA Truck, Inc. (NASD:USAK) Seasonal Chart

Capital Sr Living Corp. (NYSE:CSU) Seasonal Chart

Capital Sr Living Corp. (NYSE:CSU) Seasonal Chart

Fidelity National Financial, Inc. (NYSE:FNF) Seasonal Chart

Fidelity National Financial, Inc. (NYSE:FNF) Seasonal Chart

Ascena Retail Group, Inc. (NASD:ASNA) Seasonal Chart

Ascena Retail Group, Inc. (NASD:ASNA) Seasonal Chart

International Speedway Corp. (NASD:ISCA) Seasonal Chart

International Speedway Corp. (NASD:ISCA) Seasonal Chart

Industrial-Alliance Life (TSE:IAG) Seasonal Chart

Industrial-Alliance Life (TSE:IAG) Seasonal Chart

St Joe Corp. (NYSE:JOE) Seasonal Chart

St Joe Corp. (NYSE:JOE) Seasonal Chart

Corus Entertainment Inc. (TSE:CJR.B) Seasonal Chart

Corus Entertainment Inc. (TSE:CJR.B) Seasonal Chart

Clear Channel Outdoor Holdings Inc. (NYSE:CCO) Seasonal Chart

Clear Channel Outdoor Holdings Inc. (NYSE:CCO) Seasonal Chart

Monsanto Company (NYSE:MON) Seasonal Chart

Monsanto Company (NYSE:MON) Seasonal Chart

Badger Meter, Inc. (NYSE:BMI) Seasonal Chart

Badger Meter, Inc. (NYSE:BMI) Seasonal Chart

 

 

The Markets

Stocks closed higher on Monday is what was essentially a stealth rally ahead of the mid-term election in the US.  The S&P 500 Index gained 0.56%, closing around its declining 20-day moving average.  The gap between 2685 and 2700 remains unfilled and continues to provide support to this market that is trying to heal following the oversold dip recorded last month.  Tuesday is election day in the US and market participants will be closely watching the outcome to determine how to position moving forward.  The positive tendencies for stocks that follow the mid-term election have been well telegraphed in recent days.  Since World War II, the S&P 500 Index has gained an average of 10.6% from a low charted in October through to the end of the year during mid-term election years.  The benchmark has been positive through the end of the year in each mid-term election year.  Typically in mid-term election years, stocks weaken in the spring and hit a low in September, followed by a fairly strong rally through the consecutive three quarters.  In fact, the last quarter of the mid-term election year through to the second quarter of a pre-election year has historically been the strongest time for stocks of the 16 quarter presidential election cycle.  While the path that the market has taken this year, as gauged by the Dow Jones Industrial Average, has been quite a bit different than the average trend during equivalent years, the year-to-date return is approximately inline with the average mid-term year performance as of Monday‚Äôs close.  The blue-chip benchmark is up 3% year-to-date, or 4.51% including dividends, and the average gain   five calendar days into November of mid-term election years is 4.3%.  Overall, while the uncertainty surrounding the election seems significant, the historical bias is positive, which could suggest further gains once the uncertain overhang is removed.

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Dow Jones Industrial Average Pre-Election Year Seasonal Chart

Sentiment on Monday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bearish at 1.02.

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Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. (ACAD) Seasonal Chart Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. (APD) Seasonal Chart AmerisourceBergen Corporation (Holding Co) (ABC) Seasonal Chart Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) Seasonal Chart Ashland Global Holdings Inc. (ASH) Seasonal Chart Assurant, Inc. (AIZ) Seasonal Chart B2Gold Corp (BTG) Seasonal Chart Becton, Dickinson and Company (BDX) Seasonal Chart  CVS Health Corporation (CVS) Seasonal Chart Devon Energy Corporation (DVN) Seasonal Chart Diamondback Energy, Inc. (FANG) Seasonal Chart Eagle Bulk Shipping Inc. (EGLE) Seasonal Chart Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) Seasonal Chart Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD) Seasonal Chart Frontier Communications Corporation (FTR) Seasonal Chart Heska Corporation (HSKA) Seasonal Chart Iamgold Corporation (IAG) Seasonal Chart Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc (JAZZ) Seasonal Chart Louisiana-Pacific Corporation (LPX) Seasonal Chart Mallinckrodt plc (MNK) Seasonal Chart Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. (MLM) Seasonal Chart Maxwell Technologies, Inc. (MXWL) Seasonal Chart Northwest Natural Holding Company (NWN) Seasonal Chart Osisko Gold Royalties Ltd (OR) Seasonal Chart Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS) Seasonal Chart Papa John's International, Inc. (PZZA) Seasonal Chart Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. (PAA) Seasonal Chart Ralph Lauren Corporation (RL) Seasonal Chart Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (REGN) Seasonal Chart Southwest Gas Holdings, Inc. (SWX) Seasonal Chart Thomson Reuters Corp (TRI) Seasonal Chart Vivint Solar, Inc. (VSLR) Seasonal Chart Zebra Technologies Corporation (ZBRA) Seasonal Chart

 

 

S&P 500 Index

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TSE Composite

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