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Stock Market Outlook for September 18, 2018

S&P 500 Index testing rising trendline support, presenting a make-or-break point for the short-term path of the benchmark.

 

Real Time Economic Calendar provided by Investing.com.

 

*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities.   As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.

Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:

Fairfax Financial Holdings Limited  (TSE:FFH) Seasonal Chart

Fairfax Financial Holdings Limited (TSE:FFH) Seasonal Chart

IRSA Propiedades Comerciales SA (NASD:IRCP) Seasonal Chart

IRSA Propiedades Comerciales SA (NASD:IRCP) Seasonal Chart

Virtus Investment Partners (NASD:VRTS) Seasonal Chart

Virtus Investment Partners (NASD:VRTS) Seasonal Chart

Loral Space & Communications, Inc. (NASD:LORL) Seasonal Chart

Loral Space & Communications, Inc. (NASD:LORL) Seasonal Chart

FedEx Corporation  (NYSE:FDX) Seasonal Chart

FedEx Corporation (NYSE:FDX) Seasonal Chart

 

 

The Markets

Stocks drifted lower on Monday as, once again, trade headlines gripped investor attention.  The S&P 500 Index shed over half of one percent, moving back towards its rising 20-day moving average.

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Turning to an hourly look at the large-cap benchmark, the index has filled the gap that was opened last Thursday; failure from these levels could trigger short-term sell signals.  The benchmark is testing its rising hourly trendline, presenting a make-or-break point for the short-term direction of the benchmark.  Seasonally, the last two weeks of September are the weakest period of the month and, more importantly, the year.  The S&P 500 Index has produced a loss of 0.91%, on average, between September 19th and September 30th over the past 50 years.  Negative results were realized in 62% of these periods.  Evidence of the quarter-end rebalance became apparent on Monday as some of the outperformers in the technology and consumer discretionary sectors were sold off in favour of underperformers in the materials and industrial sectors.  This tendency continues through the end of the quarter, which concludes next Friday.

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On the economic front, the Empire State Index was released before the opening bell.  The headline print indicated that conditions softened slightly in September, falling to +19.0 from +25.6 previous.  The consensus was for a print of +23.0.  Stripping out the seasonal adjustments, the actual level was +16.1, which is firmly higher than the average level for September of +11.6.  The result, however, is around 5-points less than the level seen at this point last year.  While manufacturing conditions remain strong, some variability in the results is becoming apparent, perhaps a reaction to the tariff war between the US and the rest of the world.  Seasonally, this gauge of the sentiment of manufacturers in the New York region tends to decline through the last quarter of the year.

Empire State General Business Conditions Index Seasonal Chart

Sentiment on Monday, as gauged by the put-call ratio ended bullish at 0.90.

 

 

 

 

 

Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:

Apogee Enterprises, Inc. (APOG) Seasonal Chart AutoZone, Inc. (AZO) Seasonal Chart Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. (CBRL) Seasonal Chart General Mills, Inc. (GIS) Seasonal Chart

 

 

S&P 500 Index

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TSE Composite

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