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Stock Market Outlook for June 22, 2018

Quarter-end rebalance continues, pushing the S&P 500 back to short-term trendline support.

 

Real Time Economic Calendar provided by Investing.com.

 

*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities.   As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.

Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:

Kinder Morgan Inc. (NYSE:KMI) Seasonal Chart

Kinder Morgan Inc. (NYSE:KMI) Seasonal Chart

ABC Bancorp (NASD:ABCB) Seasonal Chart

ABC Bancorp (NASD:ABCB) Seasonal Chart

Weingarten Realty Investors (NYSE:WRI) Seasonal Chart

Weingarten Realty Investors (NYSE:WRI) Seasonal Chart

PacWest Bancorp (NASD:PACW) Seasonal Chart

PacWest Bancorp (NASD:PACW) Seasonal Chart

Federal Realty Investment Trust (NYSE:FRT) Seasonal Chart

Federal Realty Investment Trust (NYSE:FRT) Seasonal Chart

Kimco Realty Corporation  (NYSE:KIM) Seasonal Chart

Kimco Realty Corporation (NYSE:KIM) Seasonal Chart

Welltower, Inc.  (NYSE:HCN) Seasonal Chart

Welltower, Inc. (NYSE:HCN) Seasonal Chart

Tricon Capital Group (TSE:TCN) Seasonal Chart

Tricon Capital Group (TSE:TCN) Seasonal Chart

Rush Enterprises Inc. (NASD:RUSHA) Seasonal Chart

Rush Enterprises Inc. (NASD:RUSHA) Seasonal Chart

Abbott Laboratories (NYSE:ABT) Seasonal Chart

Abbott Laboratories (NYSE:ABT) Seasonal Chart

Vicor Corp. (NASD:VICR) Seasonal Chart

Vicor Corp. (NASD:VICR) Seasonal Chart

CBOE Holdings Inc. (NASD:CBOE) Seasonal Chart

CBOE Holdings Inc. (NASD:CBOE) Seasonal Chart

 

 

The Markets

Stocks weakened again on Thursday as portfolio managers rebalance their books ahead of the end of the quarter.  The S&P 500 Index shed four-tenths of one percent, weighed down by weakness in cyclical sectors, mainly energy and industrials.  Defensive sectors of consumer staples and utilities closed in the green as those areas that portfolio managers are underweight due to the price action over the past six months attract inflows.  This quarterly rebalance process typically culminates on June 27th, on average, leading to the summer rally period that fuels stocks higher in the weeks that follow.  Support on the large-cap index remains apparent around the rising 20-day moving average, although the 50-day moving average at 2713 may present the better risk-to-reward entry point for the positive tendency ahead.

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On the economic front, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia released their gauge of business conditions in the region.  The headline print indicated that the general business conditions index fell to a 19-month low of 19.9 in June from 34..4 previous.  The consensus estimate was for a print of 28.0.  Stripping out the seasonal adjustments, the current general activity index is showing +19.0, remaining firmly above the seasonal average for this time of year of +7.8.  The report continues to express strength in manufacturing conditions, the momentum of which may be enough to buck the slowdown that is typical in the month ahead.  The average level of the index in July is –6.8 as activity declines amidst factory shutdowns, but, in recent years, particularly last year, activity has held firmly in expansionary territory as the manufacturers attempt to keep up with demand.  Overall, the report continues to bode well for strength in economic conditions through the back half of the year, even as the peak in manufacturing activity has now past.

Philadelphia Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey Seasonal Chart

Sentiment on Thursday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bearish at 1.01.

 

 

 

Sectors and Industries entering their period of seasonal strength:

Live Cattle Futures (LC) Seasonal Chart
FUTURE_LC1 Relative to the S&P 500FUTURE_LC1 Relative to Gold

FUTURE_LC1 Monthly Averages

 

 

Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:

BlackBerry Limited (BB) Seasonal Chart CarMax Inc (KMX) Seasonal Chart

 

 

S&P 500 Index

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TSE Composite

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