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Stock Market Outlook for June 13, 2018

Whichever way the data is sliced, inflation is firmly embedded in the economy.

 

Real Time Economic Calendar provided by Investing.com.

 

*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities.   As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.

Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:

Sharps Compliance Corp. (NASD:SMED) Seasonal Chart

Sharps Compliance Corp. (NASD:SMED) Seasonal Chart

Tyler Technologies, Inc. (NYSE:TYL) Seasonal Chart

Tyler Technologies, Inc. (NYSE:TYL) Seasonal Chart

America Movil, S.A.B. de C.V. (NYSE:AMOV) Seasonal Chart

America Movil, S.A.B. de C.V. (NYSE:AMOV) Seasonal Chart

Barrett Business Services, Inc. (NASD:BBSI) Seasonal Chart

Barrett Business Services, Inc. (NASD:BBSI) Seasonal Chart

Alexion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:ALXN) Seasonal Chart

Alexion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:ALXN) Seasonal Chart

Microsoft Corporation  (NASDAQ:MSFT) Seasonal Chart

Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) Seasonal Chart

 

 

The Markets

Stocks closed marginally higher on Tuesday as investors await the outcome of the two-day FOMC meeting.  The S&P 500 Index added just less than two-tenths of one percent, closing below the high set in the previous session around 2790.  Short-term resistance is becoming confirmed.  The large-cap benchmark has held firmly above short-term support at the 20-hour moving average through the past couple of weeks, but this variable level of support is now showing some cracks.  Momentum indicators on the hourly look are rolling over, hinting of buying exhaustion, just as the quarter-end rebalance period gets set to begin.

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On the economic front, the consumer price Index (CPI) for May was released before Tuesday’s opening bell.  The headline print indicated that CPI increased by 0.2% last month, inline with the consensus analyst estimate.  Less food and energy, the increase remained the same at 0.2%, also inline with the consensus forecast.  Stripping out the seasonal adjustments, Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers actually increased by 0.4% in May, a tenth of a percent above the average change for this time of year.  The result puts the year-to-date change at +2.1%, representing the strongest performance since 2014.  The average change through the first five months of the year is +1.9%.  Less food and energy, the 1.5% increase in CPI represents the second strongest performance in over a decade.  Whichever way the data is sliced, inflation is firmly embedded in the economy.  Parsing the details, housing, household operations, transportation, information processing, and personal care are all trending firmly above their seasonal norms, encompassing a broad spectrum of the economy.  Food is essentially the lone major category to show results that are below the average trend.  For a breakdown of the results, the charts have been uploaded to the database at https://charts.equityclock.com/u-s-consumer-price-index-cpi-producer-price-index-ppi.

Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items Seasonal Chart

Monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items Data

Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items Seasonal Chart

Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items Less Food and Energy Seasonal Chart 

Sentiment on Tuesday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.72.

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Sectors and Industries entering their period of seasonal strength:

Biotech Industry Seasonal Chart
S5BIOTX Index Relative to the S&P 500S5BIOTX Index Relative to the Sector

S5BIOTX Index Monthly Averages

 

 

Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:

Bitauto Holdings Limited (BITA) Seasonal Chart Crown Crafts, Inc. (CRWS) Seasonal Chart Culp, Inc. (CULP) Seasonal Chart Korn/Ferry International (KFY) Seasonal Chart Sonoma Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (SNOA) Seasonal Chart Tailored Brands, Inc. (TLRD) Seasonal Chart

 

 

S&P 500 Index

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TSE Composite

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