Contact | RSS Feed

Stock Market Outlook for April 26, 2018

Oil stockpiles rise, but the bullish setup on the chart of WTI Crude remains intact.

 

Real Time Economic Calendar provided by Investing.com.

 

*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities.   As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.

Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:

Fortinet Inc. (NASD:FTNT) Seasonal Chart

Fortinet Inc. (NASD:FTNT) Seasonal Chart

Albany Molecular Research (NASD:AMRI) Seasonal Chart

Albany Molecular Research (NASD:AMRI) Seasonal Chart

Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASD:VRTX) Seasonal Chart

Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASD:VRTX) Seasonal Chart

Omnicell Inc. (NASD:OMCL) Seasonal Chart

Omnicell Inc. (NASD:OMCL) Seasonal Chart

Advisory Board Co. (NASD:ABCO) Seasonal Chart

Advisory Board Co. (NASD:ABCO) Seasonal Chart

InfoSonics Corp. (NASD:IFON) Seasonal Chart

InfoSonics Corp. (NASD:IFON) Seasonal Chart

 

 

The Markets

Stocks closed moderately higher on Wednesday as key benchmarks found a footing around rising 200-day moving averages.  The S&P 500 Index had initially shed around eight-tenths of one percent at the lows of the session, coming within mere points of the widely followed long-term average.  The trading action that followed still shows that investors are seeing this level as a place of support, buying the weakness in anticipation of higher values ahead.  The trend of lower-highs remains intact and it will take a break of the recent high around 2717 to bring an end to this pattern that has dominated the year-to-date trading activity.  Horizontal support around 2575 marks the lower limit of a descending triangle, the target of which points to around 2300.  A catalyst is likely required to fuel such a move.

image

While the 200-day moving average continues to provide a major influence on the large-cap index, there are a number of stocks already trading below this pivotal level of long-term support.  The percentage of stocks in the S&P 500 Index trading above 200-day moving averages currently sits at 55%, suggesting just less than half of stocks are below the long-term trend.  Looking historically, when this indicator falls below 62.5%, as it did on March 21st, investor nervousness typically follows, creating prolonged periods of weakness in the broader market.  It is typically not until this indicator finds a floor below the 62.5% level that stocks stabilize, brining an end to the period of volatility.  While a low was hit on April 2nd at 49.6%, it is still premature to suggest a bottom has been achieved.

image

On schedule for the Wednesday session was the petroleum status report for the week ending April 20th.  The EIA indicated that oil inventories increased by 2.2 million barrels last week, while gasoline inventories increased by 800,000 barrels.  The result saw a minor uptick to the days of supply of each commodity by one-fifth of a day, diverging from the seasonal average trend for this time of year that calls for declines.  Contributing to the increase in stockpiles was an abrupt decline in production and the level of product supplied of gasoline, which are back to levels recorded around the start of March.  Add to this another uptick in domestic production of oil and a rebound in imports, the injection to storage is an inevitable repercussion.  Stockpiles of crude remain in a fairly tight range on the year, even as domestic production charts consecutive all-time highs.  But as we have highlighted over the past few months, the demand side for products is a sector driver, and while the trend in the production and level of product supplied is showing gains that are above average this year, the flat-line in the trend over the past month and a half is raising some questions.  Seasonally, production and product supplied of gasoline typically shows gains through to the end of June.  It will warrant monitoring in the coming weeks whether this dip was just a blip or part of a trend. Fortunately for oil stockpiles, exports are at the highs of the year, helping the supply situation even if demand softens slightly.

Weekly U.S. Days of Supply of Crude Oil excluding SPR  (Number of Days) Seasonal Chart

Weekly U.S. Days of Supply of Crude Oil excluding SPR (Number of Days) Seasonal Chart

Weekly U.S. Ending Stocks excluding SPR of Crude Oil Seasonal ChartWeekly U.S. Field Production of Crude Oil Seasonal ChartWeekly U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Imports Excluding SPR Seasonal Chart

Weekly U.S. Days of Supply of Total Gasoline  (Number of Days) Seasonal Chart

Weekly U.S. Days of Supply of Total Gasoline (Number of Days) Seasonal Chart

Weekly U.S. Ending Stocks of Total Gasoline Seasonal Chart Weekly U.S. Refiner and Blender Adjusted Net Production of Finished Motor Gasoline Seasonal Chart Weekly U.S. Product Supplied of Finished Motor Gasoline Seasonal Chart

The price of oil dipped briefly following the report, but closed the session higher as investors remain focussed on rising geopolitical tensions.  The price of WTI Crude recently broke out of an ascending triangle pattern, which projects upside towards $73.  Oil prices seasonally rise between February and May.

image

Crude Oil Futures (CL) Seasonal Chart

FUTURE_CL1 Monthly Averages

Sentiment on Wednesday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, once again ended close to neutral at 0.96

image

 

 

Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:

AbbVie Inc. (ABBV) Seasonal Chart Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM) Seasonal Chart Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. (APD) Seasonal Chart Allegion plc (ALLE) Seasonal Chart Altria Group (MO) Seasonal Chart Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) Seasonal Chart American Airlines Group, Inc. (AAL) Seasonal Chart American Electric Power Company, Inc. (AEP) Seasonal Chart Baidu, Inc. (BIDU) Seasonal Chart Baxter International Inc. (BAX) Seasonal Chart Bemis Company, Inc. (BMS) Seasonal Chart BorgWarner Inc. (BWA) Seasonal Chart Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (BMY) Seasonal Chart California Water Service Group Holding (CWT) Seasonal Chart CME Group Inc. (CME) Seasonal Chart ConocoPhillips (COP) Seasonal Chart D.R. Horton, Inc. (DHI) Seasonal Chart Eastman Chemical Company (EMN) Seasonal Chart General Motors Company (GM) Seasonal Chart Hershey Company (The) (HSY) Seasonal Chart Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT) Seasonal Chart Illinois Tool Works Inc. (ITW) Seasonal Chart Intel Corporation (INTC) Seasonal Chart International Paper Company (IP) Seasonal Chart KLA-Tencor Corporation (KLAC) Seasonal Chart Leggett & Platt, Incorporated (LEG) Seasonal Chart Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. (MMC) Seasonal Chart Mattel, Inc. (MAT) Seasonal Chart MGM Resorts International (MGM) Seasonal Chart Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) Seasonal Chart Newmont Mining Corporation (NEM) Seasonal Chart Pepsico, Inc. (PEP) Seasonal Chart Raytheon Company (RTN) Seasonal Chart Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCL) Seasonal Chart Southwest Airlines Company (LUV) Seasonal Chart Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) Seasonal Chart Stryker Corporation (SYK) Seasonal Chart Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) Seasonal Chart Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) Seasonal Chart United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) Seasonal Chart United States Steel Corporation (X) Seasonal Chart Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) Seasonal Chart VeriSign, Inc. (VRSN) Seasonal Chart Vermilion Energy Inc. (VET) Seasonal Chart Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (VRTX) Seasonal Chart Zimmer Biomet Holdings, Inc. (ZBH) Seasonal Chart

 

 

S&P 500 Index

image

image

 

 

TSE Composite

image

image

 

Sponsored By...
Seasonal Advantage Portfolio by CastleMoore

Comments are closed.