Contact | RSS Feed

Stock Market Outlook for February 14, 2018

Grain prices silently moving higher, following seasonal norms.

 

Real Time Economic Calendar provided by Investing.com.

 

*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities.   As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.

Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:

Tile Shop Holdings, Inc. (NASD:TTS) Seasonal Chart

Tile Shop Holdings, Inc. (NASD:TTS) Seasonal Chart

Pearson PLC (NYSE:PSO) Seasonal Chart

Pearson PLC (NYSE:PSO) Seasonal Chart

Mid-America Apartment  (NYSE:MAA) Seasonal Chart

Mid-America Apartment (NYSE:MAA) Seasonal Chart

Brown & Brown Inc. (NYSE:BRO) Seasonal Chart

Brown & Brown Inc. (NYSE:BRO) Seasonal Chart

XL Capital Ltd.  (NYSE:XL) Seasonal Chart

XL Capital Ltd. (NYSE:XL) Seasonal Chart

Brown-Forman Corporation (NYSE:BF.B) Seasonal Chart

Brown-Forman Corporation (NYSE:BF.B) Seasonal Chart

 

 

 

The Markets

Stocks ended mildly positive on Tuesday as investors await the outcome of a key inflation gauge for the month of January.  The S&P 500 Index added around a quarter of one percent, holding above its 100-day moving average.  Investors are looking to take their cue based on Wednesday’s report on the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is expected to provide a gauge on how aggressive the US Fed will be in raising rates this year as inflationary pressures grow.  Last year saw the largest change in CPI since 2011, rising 2.1% over the calendar year.  The average change in this index for the month of January is 0.4% and analysts currently have forecasts for a 0.3% rise (seasonally adjusted).  We’ll have the breakdown of the report from a seasonal perspective in tomorrow’s report, along with the important report on retail sales, providing insight as to how consumers are allocating the tax cuts and bonuses granted at  the end of last year.

http://charts.equityclock.com/seasonal_charts/economic_data/CPIAUCNS_seasonal_chart.PNG

While we wait for the latest read of inflation impacting the wallets of consumers, one area of the commodity market is already suggesting pricing pressures.  Grain prices have been on the rise since the year began, rebounding from some of the lowest levels in the past decade.  The iPath® Bloomberg Grains Subindex Total ReturnSM ETN (JJG) is higher by 6.86% year-to-date, significantly outperforming the return of the S&P 500 Index, which is down by four-tenths of one percent as of Tuesday’s close.  The “gains in grains” follow positive seasonal tendencies that span the first few months of the year as supplies wane amidst the colder weather pattern in the northern hemisphere.  The Grain ETN (JJG) is testing its declining 200-day moving average for the first time since last summer, providing a significant hurdle in the way of its upside move.  Momentum indicators are trending in bullish territory for the first time since last July, suggesting strength behind the bounce back to this long-term level of resistance.  Declining trendline resistance, which forms the upper limit of a massive falling wedge pattern, hovers around $28.50, or another 9% above present levels.

image

Corn Futures (C) Seasonal Chart
FUTURE_C1 Relative to the S&P 500FUTURE_C1 Relative to Gold

FUTURE_C1 Monthly Averages

Soybeans Futures (S) Seasonal Chart
FUTURE_S1 Relative to the S&P 500FUTURE_S1 Relative to Gold

FUTURE_S1 Monthly Averages

Not necessarily related to the price of commodities, but rooted in the strength of the global economy, is the value of the Baltic Dry Index, which measures the cost of shipping various raw materials by sea.  The index has collapsed by over 35% since peaking in December, suggesting of a cooling in demand for inputs to the manufacturing process.  The decline in the first month of the year is very typical as trading activity subsides following peak shipping season at the end of the year.  It is around the present timeframe that the index typically finds a low, rebounding through the spring as the manufacturing economy picks up from the slower winter months.  While there may be debate over the effectiveness of the index as an economic gauge, there is still valuable information that can be gleaned by its direction.  As demand for commodities increases, the gauge will typically trade higher, as we saw over the past year amidst strength in manufacturing activity.  The recent fall warrants monitoring, but nothing is too far out of seasonal norms, just yet.  The months ahead will be key to determine if the trend of higher-highs and higher-lows continues, indicative of a strengthening global economy.

image

image

Sentiment on Tuesday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended close to neutral at 0.96.

image

 

 

 

 

 

Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:

Acco Brands Corporation (ACCO) Seasonal Chart Agilent Technologies, Inc. (A) Seasonal Chart Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM) Seasonal Chart Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. (ALSN) Seasonal Chart Annaly Capital Management Inc (NLY) Seasonal Chart Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT) Seasonal Chart Barrick Gold Corporation (ABX) Seasonal Chart Bunge Limited (BG) Seasonal Chart Carriage Services, Inc. (CSV) Seasonal Chart Cedar Fair, L.P. (FUN) Seasonal Chart CenturyLink, Inc. (CTL) Seasonal Chart CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) Seasonal Chart Chemed Corp. (CHE) Seasonal Chart  Cimarex Energy Co (XEC) Seasonal Chart Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) Seasonal Chart CMS Energy Corporation (CMS) Seasonal Chart Colliers International Group Inc. (CIGI) Seasonal Chart Credit Suisse Group (CS) Seasonal Chart Deltic Timber Corporation (DEL) Seasonal Chart Dr Pepper Snapple Group, Inc (DPS) Seasonal Chart Equinix, Inc. (EQIX) Seasonal Chart Gold Fields Limited (GFI) Seasonal Chart Goldcorp Inc. (GG) Seasonal Chart Groupon, Inc. (GRPN) Seasonal Chart Hawaiian Electric Industries, Inc. (HE) Seasonal Chart Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT) Seasonal Chart Hyatt Hotels Corporation (H) Seasonal Chart Internationa Flavors & Fragrances, Inc. (IFF) Seasonal Chart Interpublic Group of Companies, Inc. (The) (IPG) Seasonal Chart Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC) Seasonal Chart Marathon Oil Corporation (MRO) Seasonal Chart Marriott International (MAR) Seasonal Chart Molson Coors Brewing Company (TAP) Seasonal Chart NetApp, Inc. (NTAP) Seasonal Chart Oil States International, Inc. (OIS) Seasonal Chart On Assignment, Inc. (ASGN) Seasonal Chart Pilgrim's Pride Corporation (PPC) Seasonal Chart SodaStream International Ltd. (SODA) Seasonal Chart  Sun Life Financial Inc. (SLF) Seasonal Chart Teck Resources Ltd (TECK) Seasonal Chart TripAdvisor, Inc. (TRIP) Seasonal Chart Waste Connections, Inc. (WCN) Seasonal Chart Williams Companies, Inc. (The) (WMB) Seasonal Chart Wyndham Worldwide Corp (WYN) Seasonal Chart

 

 

S&P 500 Index

image

image

 

 

TSE Composite

image

image

 

Sponsored By...

Comments are closed.