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Stock Market Outlook for April 18, 2017

Manufacturing conditions starting to cool, but positive path remains intact.


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**NEW** As part of the ongoing process to offer new and up-to-date information regarding seasonal and technical investing, we are adding a section to the daily reports that details the stocks that are entering their period of seasonal strength, based on average historical start dates.   Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities.   As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.

Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:

  • No stocks identified for today



The Markets

Stocks rebounded on Monday as investors put geopolitical concerns aside and instead focussed the earnings season ahead.  The S&P 500 Index traded higher by almost nine-tenths of a percent, recouping the losses from Thursday’s session and trading back to short-term resistance around the 20-day moving average.  Short-term horizontal support around 2322 remains intact.  A bearish crossover with respect to the 20 and 50-day moving averages is becoming realized.  Volume was among the lightest of the year as investors booked holidays for Easter Monday.


On the economic front, the strength that was evident in manufacturing conditions during the first quarter is showing its first signs of cooling.  The General Business Conditions Index of the Empire State Manufacturing Survey pulled back to 5.2 in April, from 16.4 reported previous.  The consensus forecast was for a reading of 15.0.  Stripping out the seasonal adjustments, the manufacturing gauge actually came in at 15.9, marginally below average for the month of April of 17.3.  Still, despite the downtick in conditions, the manufacturing economy remains on a positive path, rebounding as the US dollar and commodity prices stabilize.  A better read on the state of manufacturing conditions in the US will be provided on Thursday with the release of the Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey.


Sentiment on Monday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.85.




Sectors and Industries entering their period of seasonal strength:

NASDAQ Composite Seasonal Chart

^IXIC Relative to the S&P 500
^IXIC Relative to the S&P 500

^IXIC Monthly Averages



Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:



S&P 500 Index





TSE Composite



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