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Stock Market Outlook for February 15, 2017

Interest-rate sensitive sectors battling with resistance at their respective 200-day moving averages.

 

Real Time Economic Calendar provided by Investing.com.

 

**NEW** As part of the ongoing process to offer new and up-to-date information regarding seasonal and technical investing, we are adding a section to the daily reports that details the stocks that are entering their period of seasonal strength, based on average historical start dates.   Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities.   As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.

Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:

  • No stocks identified for today

 

 

The Markets

Tuesday’s session centered around Janet Yellen as she delivered here semi-annual monetary policy testimony before the Senate Banking Committee.  Bond prices dipped and stocks rallied, led once again by the financial sector, as the Fed Chief adopted a slightly more hawkish tone.  The comments did little to sway the probabilities of a rate hike during the next two FOMC meetings; market participants continue to hold to the belief that June will likely be the meeting that results in the decision to increase the Fed Funds Rate toward the 1% bound.  The iShares 7-10 year treasury bond ETF shed just over a third of one-percent, testing the lower limit of the triangle consolidation pattern that has been highlighted over recent days.  The direction of the break warrants close attention.  Seasonally, bond prices typically weaken through April.

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While financials strengthened, continuing to move above its recent consolidation range, interest rate sensitive sectors, including utilities and REITs, closed in the red.  Both the S&P 500 Utilities index and the MSCI US REIT index are trading within a narrowing range between long-term resistance at their respective 200-day moving averages and intermediate support at their respect 50-day averages; the relative performance of each is starting to curl lower once again.  Seasonally, both sectors remain in a period of weakness through to March, then stabilize into early spring.

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Utilities Sector Seasonal Chart

UTILITIES Relative to the S&P 500
UTILITIES Relative to the S&P 500

UTILITIES Monthly Averages

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MSCI US REIT Index Seasonality

^RMZ Relative to the S&P 500
^RMZ Relative to the S&P 500

Monthly Seasonal MSCI US REIT Index

Sentiment on Tuesday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.70.

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Sectors and Industries entering their period of seasonal strength:

AMEX OIL INDEX Seasonal Chart

^XOI Relative to the S&P 500
^XOI Relative to the S&P 500

^XOI Monthly Averages

 

 

Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:

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S&P 500 Index

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TSE Composite

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