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Stock Market Outlook for May 16, 2013

Todays_Markets

Upcoming US Events for Today:

  1. Consumer Price Index for April will be released at 8:30am.   The market expects a month-over-month decline of 0.3% versus a decline of 0.2% previous.   Excluding Food and Energy, the index is expected to increase by 0.2% versus an increase of 0.1% previous.
  2. Housing Starts for April will be released at 8:30am.   The market expects 969K versus 1036K previous.   Building Permits are expected to show 945K versus 902K previous.
  3. Weekly Jobless Claims will be released at 8:30am.   The market expects Initial Claims to show 330K versus 323K previous.
  4. Philadelphia Fed Index for May will be released at 10:00am.   The market expects 2.2 versus 1.3 previous.

 

Upcoming International Events for Today:

  1. Euro-Zone CPI for April will be released at 5:00am EST.   The market expects a year-over-year increase of 1.2%, consistent with the previous report.
  2. Euro-Zone Trade Balance for March will be released at 5:00am EST. 
  3. Japan Machine Orders for March will be released at 7:50pm EST.   The market expects a year-over-year decline of 4.9% versus a decline of 11.3% previous.

 

Recap of Yesterday’s Economic Events:

Event Actual Forecast Previous
JPY Consumer Confidence 44.5 45.5 44.8
EUR French Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) -0.20% -0.10% -0.20%
EUR French Gross Domestic Product (YoY) -0.40% -0.40% -0.30%
EUR German Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) 0.10% 0.30% -0.70%
EUR German Gross Domestic Product w.d.a. (YoY) -0.20% 0.20% 0.30%
EUR German Gross Domestic Product n.s.a. (YoY) -1.40% 0.20% 0.00%
EUR Italian Gross Domestic Product s.a. and w.d.a. (QoQ) -0.50% -0.40% -0.90%
EUR Italian Gross Domestic Product s.a. and w.d.a. (YoY) -2.30% -2.20% -2.80%
GBP Claimant Count Rate 4.50% 4.60% 4.60%
GBP Jobless Claims Change -7.3K -3.0K -9.9K
GBP Average Weekly Earnings (3M/YoY) 0.40% 0.70% 1.00%
GBP Weekly Earnings exBonus (3M/YoY) 0.80% 0.80% 1.00%
GBP ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) 7.80% 7.90% 7.90%
GBP Employment Change (3M/3M) -43K -20K -2K
CHF ZEW Survey (Expectations) 2.2   20
EUR Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) -0.20% -0.10% -0.60%
EUR Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) -1.00% -0.90% -0.90%
USD MBA Mortgage Applications -7.30%   7.00%
CAD Manufacturing Shipments (MoM) -0.30% 0.50% 2.80%
USD Empire Manufacturing -1.43 4 3.05
USD Producer Price Index (MoM) -0.70% -0.60% -0.60%
USD Producer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (MoM) 0.10% 0.10% 0.20%
USD Producer Price Index (YoY) 0.60% 0.80% 1.10%
USD Producer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY) 1.70% 1.70% 1.70%
USD Total Net TIC Flows $2.10   $61.9B
USD Net Long-term TIC Flows $-13.5B $35.0B $-13.3B
CAD Existing Home Sales (MoM) 0.60%   2.40%
USD Industrial Production -0.50% -0.10% 0.30%
USD Capacity Utilization 77.80% 78.30% 78.30%
USD Manufacturing (SIC) Production -0.40% 0.00% -0.30%
USD NAHB Housing Market Index 44 43 41
USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories -624K 450K 230K
USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories 2588K -1100K -910K
USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory 2300K 475K 1812K
USD DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory 575K   -652K
NZD Business NZ Performance of Manufacturing Index 54.5   53.4
JPY Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) 0.90% 0.70% 0.30%
JPY Gross Domestic Product Annualized 3.50% 2.70% 1.00%
JPY Nominal Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) 0.40% 0.50% 0.10%
JPY Gross Domestic Product Deflator (YoY) -1.20% -0.90% -0.70%

 

The Markets

Seasonal charts of companies reporting earrings today:

BRC CAE FLO JCP KSS JADE WMT AMAT ADSK JWN 

Sentiment on Wednesday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended 0.78.

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S&P 500 Index

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Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com

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TSE Composite

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Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com

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Horizons Seasonal Rotation ETF (TSX:HAC)

  • Closing Market Value: $13.38 (up 0.22%)
  • Closing NAV/Unit: $13.36 (up 0.12%)

Performance*

2013 Year-to-Date Since Inception (Nov 19, 2009)
HAC.TO 5.03% 33.6%

* performance calculated on Closing NAV/Unit as provided by custodian 

Click Here to learn more about the proprietary, seasonal rotation investment strategy developed by research analysts Don Vialoux, Brooke Thackray, and Jon Vialoux.

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