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Stock Market Outlook for March 28, 2013

Todays_Markets

Upcoming US Events for Today:

  1. GDP for the Fourth Quarter will be released at 8:30am.   The market expects a quarter-over-quarter increase of 0.6% versus an increase of 0.1% previous.
  2. Weekly Jobless Claims will be released at 8:30am.   The market expects 340K versus 336K previous.
  3. Chicago PMI for March will be released at 9:45am.   The market expects 56.1 versus 56.8 previous.
  4. Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index for March will be released at 11:00am.   The market expects –3 versus –10 previous.

 

Upcoming International Events for Today:

  1. German Retail Sales for February will be released at 3:00am EST.   The market expects a year-over-year increase of 2.1% versus an increase of 2.4% previous.
  2. German Unemployment Rate for March will be released at 4:55am EST.   The market expects 6.9%, consistent with the previous report.
  3. Canadian PPI for February will be released at 8:30am EST.   The market expects a month-over-month increase of 0.5% versus no change (0.0%) previous.
  4. Canadian GDP for January will be release at 8:30am EST.   The market expects a year-over-year increase of 0.9% versus an increase of 0.8% previous.
  5. Japan PMI Manufacturing Index for March will be released at 7:15pm EST.
  6. Japan CPI for February will be released at 7:30pm EST.   Ex-Food, the market expects a year-over-year decline of 0.4% versus a decline of 0.2% previous.
  7. Japan Industrial Production for February will be released at 7:50pm EST.   The market expects a year-over-year decline of 8.6% versus a decline of 6.5% previous.

 

Recap of Yesterday’s Economic Events:

Event Actual Forecast Previous
NZD NBNZ Business Confidence 34.6   39.4
EUR German GfK Consumer Confidence Survey 5.9 5.9 5.9
EUR French Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) -0.30% -0.30% -0.30%
EUR French Gross Domestic Product (YoY) -0.30% -0.30% -0.30%
CHF KOF Swiss Leading Indicator 0.99 1.04 1.04
GBP Current Account (Pounds) -14.0B -12.5B -15.1B
GBP Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) -0.30% -0.30% -0.30%
GBP Gross Domestic Product (YoY) 0.20% 0.30% 0.30%
GBP Total Business Investment (QoQ) -0.80% -1.20% -1.20%
GBP Total Business Investment (YoY) 0.80%   0.40%
EUR Euro-Zone Business Climate Indicator -0.86 -0.79 -0.72
EUR Euro-Zone Industrial Confidence -12.5 -12 -11.3
EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence -23.5 -23.5 -23.5
EUR Euro-Zone Services Confidence -6.7 -6.5 -5.3
EUR Euro-Zone Economic Confidence 90 90.5 91.1
USD MBA Mortgage Applications 7.70%   -7.10%
CAD Consumer Price Index (MoM) 1.20% 0.70% 0.10%
CAD Consumer Price Index (YoY) 1.20% 0.80% 0.50%
CAD Bank Canada Consumer Price Index Core (MoM) 0.80% 0.30% 0.10%
CAD Bank Canada Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) 1.40% 1.00% 1.00%
CAD Consumer Price Index s.a. (MoM) 0.70% 0.50% 0.00%
CAD Core CPI s.a. (MoM) 0.40% 0.10% 0.10%
CAD Consumer Price Index 122.7   121.3
USD Pending Home Sales (MoM) -0.40% -0.30% 3.80%
USD Pending Home Sales (YoY) 5.00% 8.70% 9.60%
USD DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory 439K   -286K
USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory -4513K -850K -672K
USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories 3256K 1325K -1314K
USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories -1596K -1000K -1476K
JPY Retail Trade s.a. (MoM) 1.60% 0.50% -0.20%
JPY Retail Trade (YoY) -2.30% -1.80% -1.10%
JPY Large Retailers’ Sales -3.70% -1.50% -3.50%

 

The Markets

No further commentary will be provided today.   Enjoy the long weekend and rejoin us on Monday.

Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:

 ACN BBRY FINL GME SIG WGO BIOF

Sentiment on Wednesday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.92.

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Sector performance on Wednesday:

Name % Chg
Health Care Select Sector SPDR 0.51
Utilities Select Sector SPDR 0.47
Energy Select Sector SPDR 0.33
Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR 0.04
Industrials Select Sector SPDR 0
Materials Select Sector SPDR -0.03
Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR -0.08
Technology Select Sector SPDR -0.26
Financials Select Sector SPDR -0.47

The outperformance of the defensive sectors (Staples, Health Care, and Utilities) continues to suggest risk-aversion, typically a warning sign for the end of the period of seasonal strength for equity markets, which ends around May 5th, on average.

 

S&P 500 Index

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Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com

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TSE Composite

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Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com

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Horizons Seasonal Rotation ETF (TSX:HAC)

  • Closing Market Value: $13.38 (down 0.52%)
  • Closing NAV/Unit: $13.43 (down 0.07%)

Performance*

2013 Year-to-Date Since Inception (Nov 19, 2009)
HAC.TO 5.62% 34.3%

* performance calculated on Closing NAV/Unit as provided by custodian 

Click Here to learn more about the proprietary, seasonal rotation investment strategy developed by research analysts Don Vialoux, Brooke Thackray, and Jon Vialoux.

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