Stock Market Outlook for March 28, 2013
Upcoming US Events for Today:
- GDP for the Fourth Quarter will be released at 8:30am. The market expects a quarter-over-quarter increase of 0.6% versus an increase of 0.1% previous.
- Weekly Jobless Claims will be released at 8:30am. The market expects 340K versus 336K previous.
- Chicago PMI for March will be released at 9:45am. The market expects 56.1 versus 56.8 previous.
- Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index for March will be released at 11:00am. The market expects –3 versus –10 previous.
Upcoming International Events for Today:
- German Retail Sales for February will be released at 3:00am EST. The market expects a year-over-year increase of 2.1% versus an increase of 2.4% previous.
- German Unemployment Rate for March will be released at 4:55am EST. The market expects 6.9%, consistent with the previous report.
- Canadian PPI for February will be released at 8:30am EST. The market expects a month-over-month increase of 0.5% versus no change (0.0%) previous.
- Canadian GDP for January will be release at 8:30am EST. The market expects a year-over-year increase of 0.9% versus an increase of 0.8% previous.
- Japan PMI Manufacturing Index for March will be released at 7:15pm EST.
- Japan CPI for February will be released at 7:30pm EST. Ex-Food, the market expects a year-over-year decline of 0.4% versus a decline of 0.2% previous.
- Japan Industrial Production for February will be released at 7:50pm EST. The market expects a year-over-year decline of 8.6% versus a decline of 6.5% previous.
Recap of Yesterday’s Economic Events:
|NZD NBNZ Business Confidence||34.6||39.4|
|EUR German GfK Consumer Confidence Survey||5.9||5.9||5.9|
|EUR French Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)||-0.30%||-0.30%||-0.30%|
|EUR French Gross Domestic Product (YoY)||-0.30%||-0.30%||-0.30%|
|CHF KOF Swiss Leading Indicator||0.99||1.04||1.04|
|GBP Current Account (Pounds)||-14.0B||-12.5B||-15.1B|
|GBP Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)||-0.30%||-0.30%||-0.30%|
|GBP Gross Domestic Product (YoY)||0.20%||0.30%||0.30%|
|GBP Total Business Investment (QoQ)||-0.80%||-1.20%||-1.20%|
|GBP Total Business Investment (YoY)||0.80%||0.40%|
|EUR Euro-Zone Business Climate Indicator||-0.86||-0.79||-0.72|
|EUR Euro-Zone Industrial Confidence||-12.5||-12||-11.3|
|EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence||-23.5||-23.5||-23.5|
|EUR Euro-Zone Services Confidence||-6.7||-6.5||-5.3|
|EUR Euro-Zone Economic Confidence||90||90.5||91.1|
|USD MBA Mortgage Applications||7.70%||-7.10%|
|CAD Consumer Price Index (MoM)||1.20%||0.70%||0.10%|
|CAD Consumer Price Index (YoY)||1.20%||0.80%||0.50%|
|CAD Bank Canada Consumer Price Index Core (MoM)||0.80%||0.30%||0.10%|
|CAD Bank Canada Consumer Price Index Core (YoY)||1.40%||1.00%||1.00%|
|CAD Consumer Price Index s.a. (MoM)||0.70%||0.50%||0.00%|
|CAD Core CPI s.a. (MoM)||0.40%||0.10%||0.10%|
|CAD Consumer Price Index||122.7||121.3|
|USD Pending Home Sales (MoM)||-0.40%||-0.30%||3.80%|
|USD Pending Home Sales (YoY)||5.00%||8.70%||9.60%|
|USD DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory||439K||-286K|
|USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory||-4513K||-850K||-672K|
|USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories||3256K||1325K||-1314K|
|USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories||-1596K||-1000K||-1476K|
|JPY Retail Trade s.a. (MoM)||1.60%||0.50%||-0.20%|
|JPY Retail Trade (YoY)||-2.30%||-1.80%||-1.10%|
|JPY Large Retailers’ Sales||-3.70%||-1.50%||-3.50%|
No further commentary will be provided today. Enjoy the long weekend and rejoin us on Monday.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
Sentiment on Wednesday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.92.
Sector performance on Wednesday:
|Health Care Select Sector SPDR||0.51|
|Utilities Select Sector SPDR||0.47|
|Energy Select Sector SPDR||0.33|
|Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR||0.04|
|Industrials Select Sector SPDR||0|
|Materials Select Sector SPDR||-0.03|
|Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR||-0.08|
|Technology Select Sector SPDR||-0.26|
|Financials Select Sector SPDR||-0.47|
The outperformance of the defensive sectors (Staples, Health Care, and Utilities) continues to suggest risk-aversion, typically a warning sign for the end of the period of seasonal strength for equity markets, which ends around May 5th, on average.
S&P 500 Index
Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com
Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com
Horizons Seasonal Rotation ETF (TSX:HAC)
- Closing Market Value: $13.38 (down 0.52%)
- Closing NAV/Unit: $13.43 (down 0.07%)
|2013 Year-to-Date||Since Inception (Nov 19, 2009)|
* performance calculated on Closing NAV/Unit as provided by custodian
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