Clock That Stock: Oracle Corporation (NASDAQ:ORCL)
Oracle Corporation (NASDAQ:ORCL)
Oracle Corporation is set to release Q1 earnings after the bell today and analysts are expecting 35 cents per share. The stock has jumped since HP’s former top boss Mark Hurd joined the company and investors are anxiously awaiting the future outlook with this new captain at the helm. The stock produced a technical buy signal following that announcement and is now well into overbought territory. The stock is approximately one dollar away from hitting resistance at $26.50 and is showing slight amounts of weakness prior to earnings results this evening. Option volumes prior to tonight’s release are overly bearish on current month contracts, which expire tomorrow. The put/call ratio of 1.18 is a bet on the downside to protect or speculate as a result of surprises that may be produced tonight.
We are approaching the period of strength for this equity that ranges into February. This corresponds to the period of seasonal strength for technology that customarily tops out in January. Aside from the entry point produced last week, investors not already invested may not find it ideal to invest at such levels. Best bet is to wait until a pullback occurs and another technical buy signal is produced. Earnings this evening will provide greater understanding into the strength of this company and the guidance moving forward. The stock has a price target of between $29 to $30.
| Oracle Corporation (ORCL) | |||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Seasonality Analysis | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Analysis has revealed that with a buy date of May 10 and a sell date of January 11, investors have benefited from a total return of 1124.49% over the last 10 years. This scenario has shown positive results in 7 of those periods. | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Conversely, the best return over the maximum number of positive periods reveals a buy date of May 8 and a sell date of June 28, producing a total return over the same 10-year range of 91.33% with positive results in 10 of those periods. | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| The buy and hold return for the past 10 years was -11.79%. | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Technical Analysis | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Support 2 | Support 1 | Pivot Point | Resistance1 | Resistance2 | The Numbers | ||||||||||||||||||
| 24.95 | 25.34 | 25.57 | 25.96 | 26.19 | Most Recent Close: | 25.74 | |||||||||||||||||
| Support/Resistance Analys | Broke Lwr Resistance (1) | 52-Week High: | 26.63 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| MACD Analysis: | Positive/Increasing | 52-Week Low: | 20.10 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| MACD vs. Signal: | Above/Widening | Fib. Retracement: | ~ 78.6% | ||||||||||||||||||||
| RSI Analysis: | Increasingly Overbought | 50-Day MA: | 23.62 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Stochastic (Fast) Analysis: | Increasingly Overbought | 200-Day MA: | 23.93 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 50 vs 200-Day MA Analysis: | 50-day Below 200-Day MA | High Critical Level: | 24.93 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Year over Year Trend: | Strongly Gaining | Low Critical Value: | 22.25 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Critical Level Analysis: | Broke Above Previous Tren | Average Monthly Gain: | 1.4% | ||||||||||||||||||||
| MFI Analysis | Above 50 Advancing | Technical Rating: | 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Candlestick Analysis | Bullish | On a scale of 1 to 10, the higher the rating, the more appealing the investment is to buy at current levels. | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Situational Analysis | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Past Year | Advancing Sessions % | Return % | 10-Year Average | Advancing Sessions % | Return % | ||||||||||||||||||
| Sep 15 thru Oct 15 | 45.5 | -5.7 | Sep 15 thru Oct 15 | 48.4 | 1.9 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Best Return: -2.4% – Sell Sep 16 | Best Return: 8.2% – Sell Oct 3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Sep 15 thru Dec 14 | 49.2 | 3.1 | Sep 15 thru Dec 14 | 49.4 | 3.9 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Best Return: 3.1% – Sell Dec 14 | Best Return: 14.9% – Sell Nov 8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Sep 15 thru Mar 14 | 49.6 | 11 | Sep 15 thru Mar 14 | 48.4 | -1.4 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Best Return: 12.3% – Sell Jan 14 | Best Return: 19.6% – Sell Dec 4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Following Earnings Releases in General – Last 12 Periods | Following Q1 Earnings Releases – Last 5 Periods | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| 12-Period Average | Advancing Sessions % | Return % | 5-Period Average | Advancing Sessions % | Return % | ||||||||||||||||||
| After 30 Days | 53.9 | 3.8 | After 30 Days | 51 | 1.3 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Best Return: 8.2% – After 23 Days on Average | Best Return: 9% – After 20 Days on Average | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| After 60 Days | 49.5 | 0.8 | After 60 Days | 50.2 | 1.7 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Best Return: 9.7% – After 28 Days on Average | Best Return: 10.3% – After 30 Days on Average | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| After 90 Days | 49.2 | 2.2 | After 90 Days | 49.6 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Best Return: 11.6% – After 52 Days on Average | Best Return: 11.6% – After 45 Days on Average | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Further Analysis | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Sector: | Technology | Industry: | Application Software | ||||||||||||||||||||
| According to Thackray’s 2010 Investors Guide, the period of seasonal strength for the Technology Sector ranges from October 9th through to January 17th. The seasonality ends around the time of the Consumer Electronics Show at the beginning of January and before earnings are finished being reported for the previous quarter in which holiday sales contributes significantly to the bottom line. | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Current Consensus Recommend: | Outperform | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Recommendation 1-Month Ago: | Outperform | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Recommendation 3-Months Ago: | Outperform | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Disclaimer | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Analysis, comments, calculations, and opinions offered in this report, available via EquityClock.com, are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed. | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| © 2010 EquityClock.com, member of the Tech Talk Financial Network | |||||||||||||||||||||||
Stocks mentioned in this post: ORCL
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