Stock Market Outlook for June 15, 2010
Upcoming Events for Today:
- The Department of Commerce will release the Import Price Index for May at 8:30am
- The Empire Manufacturing Survey for June will be released at 8:30am. The market expects 20.00 versus 19.11 previously.
The Markets
| Market | Close | % Change | Expected ST Low | Expected ST High |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) | 10,190.89 | -0.20% | 9,972.33 | 10,861.67 |
| Dow Jones Transportation Average (^DJT) | 4,342.09 | 0.51% | 4,144.65 | 4,615.54 |
| Dow Jones Utility Average (^DJU) | 369.35 | 0.43% | 356.70 | 384.92 |
| S&P 500 (^GSPC) | 1,089.63 | -0.18% | 1,065.58 | 1,167.13 |
| S&P/TSE Composite (^GSPTSE) | 11,667.34 | 0.00% | 11,491.31 | 12,098.86 |
| NASDAQ Composite (^IXIC) | 2,243.96 | 0.02% | 2,193.04 | 2,411.64 |
| Austrian Traded Index (^ATX) | 2,405.77 | 1.81% | 2,281.54 | 2,587.80 |
| French CAC 40 (^FCHI) | 3,626.04 | 1.98% | 3,395.98 | 3,682.85 |
| German DAX (^GDAXI) | 6,125.00 | 1.28% | 5,783.82 | 6,130.54 |
| UK FTSE 100 (^FTSE) | 5,202.10 | 0.74% | 5,039.39 | 5,415.03 |
| China HANG SENG INDEX (^HSI) | 20,051.91 | 0.90% | 19,304.53 | 20,481.09 |
| Korea KOSPI Composite Index (^KS11) | 1,690.60 | 0.91% | 1,593.44 | 1,715.01 |
| Tokyo NIKKEI 225 (^N225) | 9,879.85 | 1.80% | 9,535.97 | 10,704.06 |
| Swiss Market Index (^SSMI) | 6,472.10 | 0.71% | 6,200.25 | 6,519.75 |
| Brazilian IBOVESPA (^BVSP) | 63,533.00 | -0.11% | 59,677.02 | 65,318.17 |
| Mexico’s IPC (^MXX) | 32,238.41 | 0.36% | 30,694.29 | 32,213.74 |
| Amsterdam Exchange Index (^AEX) | 331.45 | 1.81% | 311.85 | 334.61 |
| New Zealand NZX 50 INDEX GROSS (^NZ50) | 3,042.67 | 0.05% | 3,012.07 | 3,230.25 |
North American markets deteriorated today after an early rally failed to break key technical levels. The S&P 500 and DJIA failed to break the 200-day moving average as investors alleviated equity positions upon reaching this crucial level. The downgrade of Greece’s debt was enough to add volatility to the market, which reached the lowest level in weeks at around 27 according to the VIX. From there the market never regained its firm footing on the positive side of the equation.
The action of the past few days has been bullish enough to convert many bears to bulls, but can the action be trusted? A clear lack of conviction is present by the fact that volumes remain low and put/call option volumes remain relatively equivalent with investors placing bets on each outcome, whether it be up or down. The 200-day moving average continues to be the barrier, which may release its grasp if the Euro continues its short-term rebound. The concern is, however, that targets on the currency remain overwhelmingly lower, leading to future uncertainty in key indices around the world. For now the low volume strength is enough to push the market up only until the negative sentiment that remains with investors punches through to selloff the market yet again.
Market sentiment looking at options volumes remains relatively neutral at 1.10 puts trading hands for each call.
Sectors that Moved the Market
| Sector | % Price Change | % Volume Change |
| Energy Sector (XLE) | -0.52% | 57.24% |
| Basic Materials Sector (XLB) | -0.98% | 13.39% |
| Financial Sector (XLF) | -0.41% | 68.26% |
| Health Care Sector (XLV) | 0.17% | -8.89% |
| Consumer Discretionary Sector (XLY) | 0.28% | -10.61% |
| Industrials Sector (XLI) | -0.10% | 23.73% |
| Technology Sector (XLK) | -0.18% | 21.43% |
| Utilities Sector (XLU) | 0.58% | -10.24% |
| Consumer Staples Sector (XLP) | 0.57% | -6.53% |
Defensive plays in Consumer Staples, Utilities and Health Care showed the largest gains on the day as riskier assets were quickly liquidated earlier in the session. Energy lost steam with BP leading the way. The company declined around 10% over the day as concerns over future fundamentals lead investors to pursue bearish plays on the stock.
S&P 500
Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com
| Support 2 | Support 1 | Pivot Point | Resistance 1 | Resistance 2 |
| 1077.98 | 1083.80 | 1094.86 | 1100.68 | 1111.74 |
Total Returns
Yesterday: –0.18% – Trailing 5 days: 3.73% – Trailing 30 days: –4.05%
Averages for current day based on past 20 years of data
- Current Day: –0.04% with 64.29% of sessions gaining
- Next 7 days: –0.07% with 54.00% of sessions gaining (Max return: 0.89% by June 17 on Average)
- Next 30 days: 0.26% with 53.81% of sessions gaining (Max return: 2.27% by July 1 on Average)
TSE Composite
Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com
| Support 2 | Support 1 | Pivot Point | Resistance 1 | Resistance 2 |
| 11572.29 | 11619.81 | 11700.51 | 11748.03 | 11828.73 |
Total Returns
Yesterday: 2.95% – Trailing 5 days: –1.45% – Trailing 30 days: –5.97%
Averages for current day based on past 20 years of data
- Current Day: 0.05% with 66.67% of sessions gaining
- Next 7 days: –0.04% with 49.00% of sessions gaining (Max return: 1.18% by June 17 on Average)
- Next 30 days: 0.32% with 53.32% of sessions gaining (Max return: 2.88% by June 28 on Average)
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