Equity Clock

BP plc (ADR) (NYSE:BP) – Clock That Stock

Clock_That_Stock

The Stock

BP plc (ADR) (NYSE:BP) has made the news regularly over the last few weeks for obvious reasons. The oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico is now said to be the largest in American history, topping the Exxon Valdez disaster. Despite this, Oppenheimer upgraded the stock just yesterday from Perform to Outperform, citing a target of $55. The stock is down 5% on the day today.

This report will not got into the expected consequences that this disaster will have on the company since much of the details remain unsubstantiated at present. This report below details the average tendencies to the price of the stock moving forward.

Despite the negativity surrounding this company, This stock continues to hold an analyst “buy” rating and institutions have been noticed accumulating shares as of recent. Institutions currently hold 11.5% of the outstanding shares.

The company has $12.2 Billion of highly liquid assets, including cash and short-term investments, that will allow this energy powerhouse to weather the storm. Whether this will be enough and the impact on future cash flows is uncertain at this time.

What this company can offer you, should you invest, is a 20.66% ROE and 7.8% dividend yield. The fundamentals are reasonable a value the stock at $57.50

The stock has been in a sharp downtrend since mid-April, losing almost 30% in value over this time. The stock should find support at $42 should it move lower, with the upside potential being as a high at $60 where is has twice found a strict point of resistance from which it was not able to overcome.

Next earnings report for this company is due out in July, representing the second quarter ending June 30. Over the past 5 years the stock has traded negatively, on average, from this event, even though second quarter earnings have beat expectations in each of these years.

Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com

The Clock

Despite the negative trading in the past 5 years following second quarter earnings, the stock shows reasonable seasonal strength from July through to September when looking at the 20-year chart. This is a result of hurricane season impacting crude supplies, and as reported yesterday this year’s hurricane season is expected to be particularly bad. The peak period of strength for this equity ranges from February into May for gains reaching 10%, on average.

BP plc (ADR) (BP) 42.95

- 2.43 (-5.35%)

Seasonality Analysis

Analysis has revealed that with a buy date of March 3 and a sell date of June 1, investors have benefited from a total return of 195.36% over the last 10 years. This scenario has shown positive results in 9 of those periods.

Conversely, the best return over the maximum number of positive periods reveals a buy date of February 7 and a sell date of June 1, producing a total return over the same 10-year range of 192.23% with positive results in 10 of those periods.

The buy and hold return for the past 10 years was 43.93%.

Technical Analysis

Support 2

Support 1

Pivot Point

Resistance1

Resistance2

The Numbers

43.88

44.63

45.10

45.85

46.32

Most Recent Close:

45.38

Support/Resistance Analys

Broke Upr Resistance (2)

52-Week High:

62.38

MACD Analysis:

Negative/Increasing

52-Week Low:

40.61

MACD vs. Signal:

Below/Thinning

Fib. Retracement:

~ 23.6%

RSI Analysis:

Below 50

50-Day MA:

53.19

Stochastic (Fast) Analysis:

Bullish Crossover

200-Day MA:

53.70

50 vs 200-Day MA Analysis:

50-day Below 200-Day MA

High Critical Level:

57.88

Year over Year Trend:

Weakly Declining

Low Critical Value:

43.61

Critical Level Analysis:

Within Critical Levels

Average Monthly Gain:

-0.1%

MFI Analysis

Bullish Crossover

Technical Rating:

Candlestick Analysis

Neutral/Indecision

On a scale of 1 to 10, the higher the rating, the more appealing the investment is to buy at current levels.

Situational Analysis

Past Year

Advancing Sessions %

Return %

10-Year Average

Advancing Sessions %

Return %

May 27 thru Jun 26

54.5

-1.7

May 27 thru Jun 26

49.4

-0.2

Best Return: 8.8% – Sell Jun 2

Best Return: 3.7% – Sell Jun 10

May 27 thru Aug 25

9.8

May 27 thru Aug 25

49.4

-0.7

Best Return: 10.5% – Sell Aug 21

Best Return: 6.2% – Sell Jul 6

May 27 thru Nov 23

56.3

25.8

May 27 thru Nov 23

50.2

-2.3

Best Return: 27.6% – Sell Nov 17

Best Return: 9.9% – Sell Aug 24

Following Earnings Releases in General – Last 12 Periods

Following July Q2 Earnings Releases – Last 5 Periods

12-Period Average

Advancing Sessions %

Return %

5-Period Average

Advancing Sessions %

Return %

After 30 Days

52.1

2.1

After 30 Days

47.3

-2.5

Best Return: 7.5% – After 16 Days on Average

Best Return: 2.4% – After 10 Days on Average

After 60 Days

54.1

2.5

After 60 Days

49.3

-1.7

Best Return: 9.3% – After 24 Days on Average

Best Return: 4.1% – After 25 Days on Average

After 90 Days

53.9

1.2

After 90 Days

49.8

-4.8

Best Return: 12.2% – After 48 Days on Average

Best Return: 5.9% – After 49 Days on Average

Further Analysis

Sector:

Energy

Industry:

Major Integrated Oil & Gas

According to Thackray’s 2010 Investors Guide, the period of seasonal strength for the Energy Sector ranges from February 25th through to May 9th. Seasonal influences are related to the transition period experienced by U.S. refiners when they convert their facilities to gasoline production for the summer driving season from heating oil production for the winter heating season. Inventory levels typically fall below average during this period.

Current Consensus Recommend:

Outperform

Recommendation 1-Month Ago:

Outperform

Recommendation 3-Months Ago:

Outperform

Disclaimer

Analysis, comments, calculations, and opinions offered in this report, available via EquityClock.com, are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.