Stock Market Outlook for April 1, 2010
Upcoming Events for Today:
- The Department of Labor will release the Weekly Jobless Claims at 8:30am. Initial claims are expected to come in at 440K versus 442K previous. Continuing claims are expected to come in at 4618K versus 4648K previous.
- The Department of Commerce will release the Construction Spending for February at 10:00am. Expectation is a decrease by 1.0% versus a decrease of 0.6% previous.
- The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) manufacturing index for March is due to be released at 10:00am. Expectation is expansion to 57.0 versus 56.5 previous.
- Automobile sales for March will be released at around 2:00pm.
Due up for tomorrow (markets closed due to holiday): Unemployment Rate
The Markets
| Market | Close | % Change | Expected ST Low | Expected ST High |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) | 10,856.63 | -0.47% | 10,340.37 | 10,867.07 |
| Dow Jones Transportation Average (^DJT) | 4,374.62 | -0.31% | 4,070.95 | 4,386.90 |
| Dow Jones Utility Average (^DJU) | 378.82 | -0.14% | 370.77 | 381.38 |
| S&P 500 (^GSPC) | 1,169.43 | -0.33% | 1,103.27 | 1,170.29 |
| S&P/TSE Composite (^GSPTSE) | 12,037.73 | -0.05% | 11,617.73 | 12,049.06 |
| NASDAQ Composite (^IXIC) | 2,397.96 | -0.53% | 2,235.41 | 2,403.79 |
| Austrian Traded Index (^ATX) | 2,634.00 | -0.09% | 2,446.57 | 2,621.92 |
| French CAC 40 (^FCHI) | 3,974.01 | -0.34% | 3,717.65 | 3,978.46 |
| German DAX (^GDAXI) | 6,153.55 | 0.18% | 5,630.72 | 6,106.83 |
| UK FTSE 100 (^FTSE) | 5,679.60 | 0.13% | 5,330.48 | 5,690.70 |
| China HANG SENG INDEX (^HSI) | 21,239.35 | -0.63% | 20,415.01 | 21,308.03 |
| Korea KOSPI Composite Index (^KS11) | 1,692.85 | -0.43% | 1,607.00 | 1,690.29 |
| Tokyo NIKKEI 225 (^N225) | 11,089.94 | -0.06% | 10,175.74 | 10,941.40 |
| Swiss Market Index (^SSMI) | 6,873.40 | 0.03% | 6,669.39 | 6,889.05 |
| Brazilian IBOVESPA (^BVSP) | 70,372.00 | 0.59% | 66,520.80 | 69,861.29 |
| Mexico’s IPC (^MXX) | 33,266.43 | -0.40% | 31,797.70 | 33,272.42 |
| Amsterdam Exchange Index (^AEX) | 344.22 | 0.18% | 320.72 | 343.55 |
| New Zealand NZX 50 INDEX GROSS (^NZ50) | 3,267.99 | 0.56% | 3,123.66 | 3,245.25 |
Markets on majority showed losses on Wednesday as employment and manufacturing surveys came in lower than expectations, negatively impacting North American markets. This is a common theme for the last two days of the quarter that reveal negative tendencies as positions are closed and assets reallocated following what usually is a profitable quarter. Institutions are notorious for “window-dressing” portfolios with marketable positions prior to the release of holdings information for the month and the quarter. Markets in general have pulled back to within their expected trading range as investors breath a sigh of relief that profits continue to remain in tact following these flat to negative trading days. Technicals are once again predominantly bearish.
Markets are expected to be quiet today as investors wrap up the week early to begin a much needed long weekend following a quarter that brought gains of around 5% for the S&P 500 and 2.5% for the TSE Composite.
Market Sentiment when looking at Total Options Volumes is trending once again to the bullish side at 0.81 puts traded for each call, still relatively neutral compared to recent readings.
Sectors that Moved the Market
| Sector | % Price Change | % Volume Change |
| Energy Sector | 0.45% | 16.16% |
| Basic Materials Sector | -0.50% | -8.37% |
| Financial Sector | 0.19% | 22.45% |
| Health Care Sector | -0.34% | 40.53% |
| Consumer Discretionary Sector | -0.73% | 98.45% |
| Industrials Sector | -0.57% | 7.98% |
| Technology Sector | -0.30% | -11.97% |
| Utilities Sector | -0.24% | 8.46% |
| Consumer Staples Sector | -0.57% | 37.57% |
Energy and Financials were the only sectors to reveal gains on the day. Consumer Discretionary saw the greatest change in market value and volume as investors sold out of the sector on concerns that the unfavorable employment numbers released today may impact discretionary spending moving forward. Profits in consumer discretionary amounted to 10% over the quarter as a result of improving consumer sentiment numbers, a common characteristic in the period following December holiday spending.
S&P 500
Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com
| Support 2 | Support 1 | Pivot Point | Resistance 1 | Resistance 2 |
| 1161.13 | 1165.28 | 1169.92 | 1174.07 | 1178.71 |
The S&P 500 continues to show a distinct top, rounding off even more as the days progress. With the week being shortened and the number of traders being limited, market direction today depends on which investors show up to work in greater numbers, the bulls or the bears. This quarter will begin to bring about concluding seasonal influences on the market in general and individual equities in the consumer staples sector will begin to reveal strength.
Tendency on the first trading day in April is an overwhelmingly positive trading day as investors re-enter the market to take part in gains leading up to quarterly reports.
Total Returns
Yesterday: –0.33% – Trailing 5 days: 0.15% – Trailing 30 days: 4.81%
Averages for current day based on past 20 years of data
- Current Day: 0.60% with 69.23% of sessions gaining
- Next 7 days: 0.75% with 61.00% of sessions gaining (Max return: 1.62% by April 4 on Average)
- Next 30 days: 1.80% with 54.05% of sessions gaining (Max return: 3.55% by April 16 on Average)
TSE Composite
Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com
| Support 2 | Support 1 | Pivot Point | Resistance 1 | Resistance 2 |
| 11936.73 | 11987.23 | 12033.85 | 12084.35 | 12130.97 |
The TSE Composite ended flat today as positive influences in Energy managed to bolster the index against a larger loss. Seasonal prospects in energy and materials remain positive to provide the basis of strength entering into the second quarter of 2010. The TSE Composite index has not seen a negative April 1 in the past 10 years (and no this is not an April fools joke).
Total Returns
Yesterday: -0.05% – Trailing 5 days: 0.75% – Trailing 30 days: 3.51%
Averages for current day based on past 10 years of data
- Current Day: 0.80% with 100% of sessions gaining!!!
- Next 7 days: 0.89% with 57.50% of sessions gaining (Max return: 1.75% by April 4 on Average)
- Next 30 days: 1.14% with 51.56% of sessions gaining (Max return: 4.05% by April 16 on Average)
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