The Progressive Corporation (NYSE:PGR) – Clock That Stock
The Stock
The Progressive Corporation (NYSE:PGR) is breaking through to new 52-week highs today, up almost 1% by midday. This comes as a result of an upgrade on the stock by Bank of America/Merrill Lynch from underperform to neutral. The analyst also placed a price target on the stock of $20. The stock is up over 5% on the week and the month.
Looking at the fundamentals and based on current figures and estimates, a target price of around $17 is revealed, indicating that the stock is overvalued at current levels. Technicals are quickly climbing to the overbought range, however, institutions have been seen accumulating the stock on net.
Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com
The Clock
Financicals have shown a history of rallying around this timeframe, and this stock is no different. The seasonality between now and the beginning of June reveals gains topping 12%. The tendency of gains over this period is a result of a recovery in a depreciation of the stock leading up to Q4 earnings, then rallying to gains following this report as favorable guidance is provided. With the run-up we’ve seen as of lately, appreciating the stock to gains of over 5%, the rally based on a depreciated stock doesn’t seem very certain. Best bet, don’t buy into the 1-day rally.
| Progressive Corp. (PGR) 17 | -0.02 (-0.11%) | ||||||||||||||||||||
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| Seasonality Analysis | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Analysis has revealed that with a buy date of March 9 and a sell date of December 10, investors have benefited from a total return of 859.27% over the last 10 years. This scenario has shown positive results in 7 of those periods. | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Conversely, the best return over the maximum number of positive periods reveals a buy date of March 9 and a sell date of June 4, producing a total return over the same 10-year range of 825.37% with positive results in 10 of those periods. | |||||||||||||||||||||
| The buy and hold return for the past 10 years was 231.23%. | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Technical Analysis | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Support 2 | Support 1 | Pivot Point | Resistance1 | Resistance2 | The Numbers | ||||||||||||||||
| 17.56 | 17.71 | 17.85 | 18.00 | 18.14 | Most Recent Close: | 17.87 | |||||||||||||||
| Support/Resistance Analys | Neutral | 52-Week High: | 18.22 | ||||||||||||||||||
| MACD Analysis: | Positive/Increasing | 52-Week Low: | 12.52 | ||||||||||||||||||
| MACD vs. Signal: | Above/Widening | Fib. Retracement: | ~ 100% | ||||||||||||||||||
| RSI Analysis: | Above 50 | 50-Day MA: | 17.08 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Stochastic (Fast) Analysis: | Overbought and Declini | 200-Day MA: | 16.41 | ||||||||||||||||||
| 50 vs 200-Day MA Analysis: | 50-day Above 200-Day MA | High Critical Level: | 17.50 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Year over Year Trend: | Strongly Gaining | Low Critical Value: | 16.47 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Critical Level Analysis: | Broke Above Previous Tren | Average Monthly Gain: | 3.2% | ||||||||||||||||||
| MFI Analysis | Above 50 Advancing | Technical Rating: | 9 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Candlestick Analysis | Neutral/Indecision | On a scale of 1 to 10, the higher the rating, the more appealing the investment is to buy at current levels. | |||||||||||||||||||
| Situational Analysis | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Past Year | Advancing Sessions % | Return % | 10-Year Average | Advancing Sessions % | Return % | ||||||||||||||||
| Mar 18 thru Apr 17 | 52.4 | 18.3 | Mar 18 thru Apr 17 | 54.3 | 7.6 | ||||||||||||||||
| Best Return: 18.3% – Sell Apr 17 | Best Return: 10.2% – Sell Apr 9 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Mar 18 thru Jun 16 | 51.6 | 12.6 | Mar 18 thru Jun 16 | 53.3 | 17.2 | ||||||||||||||||
| Best Return: 25.6% – Sell Jun 8 | Best Return: 23.6% – Sell Jun 3 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Mar 18 thru Sep 14 | 54 | 28.2 | Mar 18 thru Sep 14 | 49.4 | 10.8 | ||||||||||||||||
| Best Return: 28.2% – Sell Sep 14 | Best Return: 24.1% – Sell Jun 17 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Following Earnings Releases – Last 12 Periods | During Equivalent Periods of Economic Recovery where Unemployment has Peaked | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 12-Period Average | Advancing Sessions % | Return % | 2-Period Average | Advancing Sessions % | Return % | ||||||||||||||||
| 30 Days After | 50.7 | 3.6 | 90 Days After | 44.8 | 20.8 | ||||||||||||||||
| Best Return: 7.6% – After 14 Days on Average | Best Return: 23.6% – After 73 Days on Average | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 60 Days After | 50.2 | 5.8 | 180 Days After | 46.5 | 37.9 | ||||||||||||||||
| Best Return: 12% – After 40 Days on Average | Best Return: 47.8% – After 139 Days on Average | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 90 Days After | 49.3 | 1.4 | 360 Days After | 45.1 | 52.4 | ||||||||||||||||
| Best Return: 12.9% – After 47 Days on Average | Best Return: 61.3% – After 280 Days on Average | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Further Analysis | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Sector: | Financial | Industry: | Property & Casualty Insurance | ||||||||||||||||||
| According to Thackray’s 2010 Investors Guide, the period of seasonal strength for the Financial Sector ranges from January 19th through to April 13th. The seasonality corresponds to the time when banks report fourth quarter earnings and provide favourable guidance for the coming year. | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Current Consensus Recommend: | Hold | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Recommendation 1-Month Ago: | Hold | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Recommendation 3-Months Ago: | Hold | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Disclaimer | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Analysis, comments, calculations, and opinions offered in this report, available via EquityClock.com, are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed. | |||||||||||||||||||||
| © 2010 EquityClock.com, member of the Tech Talk Financial Network | |||||||||||||||||||||
Stocks mentioned in this post: PGR
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