Market Outlook for March 19, 2010
Upcoming Events for Today:
- Triple Witching Day – the day in which stock and index options, as well as stock futures expire
Due up for next week: Durable Good Orders, Home Sales
The Markets
| Market | Close | % Change | Expected ST Low | Expected ST High |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) | 10,779.17 | 0.42% | 10,040.84 | 10,658.69 |
| Dow Jones Transportation Average (^DJT) | 4,422.50 | 1.01% | 3,854.53 | 4,339.99 |
| Dow Jones Utility Average (^DJU) | 382.12 | -0.49% | 367.11 | 380.12 |
| S&P 500 (^GSPC) | 1,165.83 | -0.03% | 1,068.84 | 1,154.26 |
| S&P/TSE Composite (^GSPTSE) | 12,040.01 | -0.50% | 11,258.29 | 12,025.80 |
| NASDAQ Composite (^IXIC) | 2,391.28 | 0.09% | 2,150.00 | 2,369.59 |
| Austrian Traded Index (^ATX) | 2,583.63 | -0.99% | 2,425.16 | 2,571.30 |
| French CAC 40 (^FCHI) | 3,938.18 | -0.50% | 3,612.27 | 3,933.24 |
| German DAX (^GDAXI) | 6,012.31 | -0.20% | 5,501.88 | 5,962.73 |
| UK FTSE 100 (^FTSE) | 5,642.60 | -0.04% | 5,131.14 | 5,625.07 |
| China HANG SENG INDEX (^HSI) | 21,330.67 | -0.25% | 19,884.69 | 21,232.67 |
| Korea KOSPI Composite Index (^KS11) | 1,675.17 | -0.46% | 1,573.82 | 1,665.79 |
| Tokyo NIKKEI 225 (^N225) | 10,744.03 | -0.95% | 10,019.86 | 10,728.46 |
| Swiss Market Index (^SSMI) | 6,897.70 | 0.08% | 6,361.04 | 6,870.29 |
| Brazilian IBOVESPA (^BVSP) | 69,697.00 | -0.04% | 64,224.13 | 69,669.98 |
| Mexico’s IPC (^MXX) | 32,969.83 | 0.52% | 30,734.24 | 32,669.05 |
| Amsterdam Exchange Index (^AEX) | 341.95 | -0.32% | 316.40 | 340.31 |
| New Zealand NZX 50 INDEX GROSS (^NZ50) | 3,220.69 | 0.62% | 3,081.48 | 3,223.06 |
Markets, on majority, recorded losses today as investors began to take profits from the one month rally. The Dow Jones Industrial Average managed to buck the sell-off and push to levels not seen in 18 months. Indications are becoming clear that further upside potential in the immediate short-term is increasingly slim. Technicals are rolling over and investors are expected to take profits in investments that have performed well over the many weeks.
Market sentiment when looking at options volumes today is 0.77 puts for each call trading hands.
Sectors that Moved the Market
| Sector | % Price Change | % Volume Change |
| Energy Sector (XLE) | -1.49% | -8.97% |
| Basic Materials Sector (XLB) | -0.71% | 37.35% |
| Financial Sector (XLF) | -0.57% | -19.10% |
| Health Care Sector (XLV) | 0.68% | -36.15% |
| Consumer Discretionary Sector (XLY) | -0.03% | 18.05% |
| Industrials Sector (XLI) | 0.68% | -4.86% |
| Technology Sector (XLK) | 0.13% | -54.11% |
| Utilities Sector (XLU) | -0.46% | -26.72% |
| Consumer Staples Sector (XLP) | 0.11% | 16.21% |
Industrials and Healthcare led the day today with gains of 0.68% each. Healthcare continues to make news in the US with the proposed healthcare bill going to a vote this weekend. Technology showed the greatest change in volume over previous day.
S&P 500
Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com
| Support 2 | Support 1 | Pivot Point | Resistance 1 | Resistance 2 |
| 1158.31 | 1162.07 | 1164.92 | 1168.68 | 1171.53 |
The S&P 500 is certainly overbought and the market started to realize that today. Investors are expected to take a step back, along with their gains, to determine their next play. But fear not, earnings expectations for this first quarter of the calendar year are optimistic, and there is little doubt that the market will again rally leading up to these releases. Expect the market to quickly pull back to its expected trading range before moving higher.
Total Returns
Yesterday: –0.03% – Trailing 5 days: 1.36% – Trailing 30 days: 6.48%
Averages for current day based on past 20 years of data
- Current Day: –0.23% with 46.67% of sessions gaining
- Next 7 days: 0.07% with 47.00% of sessions gaining (Max return: 0.97% by March 21 on Average)
- Next 30 days: 0.73% with 51.31% of sessions gaining (Max return: 2.55% by April 5 on Average)
TSE Composite
Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com
| Support 2 | Support 1 | Pivot Point | Resistance 1 | Resistance 2 |
| 11937.91 | 11988.96 | 12059.11 | 12110.16 | 12180.31 |
Canadian markets gave US investors a glimpse of what will soon be witnessed in American indices: a loss. Technicals are increasingly rolling over and the index will soon find itself back within expected levels. Seasonal influences remain positive, however, now is the time to re-analyze positions to determine if they have become topped out along with the market.
Total Returns
Yesterday: –0.50% – Trailing 5 days: 0.54% – Trailing 30 days: 2.95%
Averages for current day based on past 10 years of data
- Current Day: 0.25% with 85.71% of sessions gaining
- Next 7 days: 0.45% with 49.67% of sessions gaining (Max return: 1.80% by March 21 on Average)
- Next 30 days: 1.62% with 53.70% of sessions gaining (Max return: 3.94% by April 1 on Average)
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