Equity Clock

FedEx Corporation (Public, NYSE:FDX) – Clock That Stock

Clock_That_Stock

The Stock

FedEx Corporation (Public, NYSE:FDX) reported better than expected earnings today of $0.76 per share versus the consensus estimate of $0.72. The “beat” was cited as a result of higher shipment growth that favorably impacted the bottom line. Its Express and Ground business reported incomes of $265 Million and $258 Million, respectively, while its Freight business recorded a loss to the tune of $107 Million. The favorable earnings brought upon a revision to the corporation’s fiscal year EPS guidance from a range of $3.45 -$3.75 to a range of $3.60 – $3.80. The stock has rallied over 1% by midday on the favorable news.

Despite this favorable outlook, fundamental valuation is about right at current levels, however the potential for the stock to rally to a level of around $100 is certainly present. Institutions have been seen accumulating the stock on net as a result of this potential appreciation. The stock has been trading above its expected technical trading range during the last many days as it charts its upward trend, and key technical indicators are sending signs that this equity is overbought.

The stock doesn’t have a good history of gaining past earnings reports, trading rather flat over the period 30, 60 and 90 days out from earnings release. The stock, however, does have a good performance history based on equivalent economic recovery conditions where unemployment has topped out, seeing gains of 20% to 40% over the year in which conditions are improving.

The options volume put/call ratio on current month contracts is approaching the bearish range at 0.93 puts for each call trading hands today (put/call ratio of all equities is currently a bullish 0.55). A bearish market sentiment is again witnessed when looking at the open interest on current month option contracts at 1.22 puts for each call.

Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com

The Clock

The seasonality at present is positive, along with the market, between now and April 22, but not overly so with gains topping out at around 2%. The seasonal strength in the stock comes primarily at the end of the calendar year when the stock customarily rallies over 10% in a period of approximately two months. Stocks within the industrial sector tend to perform equally to that of the market in general.

FedEx Corporation (FDX) 89.8

+ 1.17 (1.32%)

Seasonality Analysis

Analysis has revealed that with a buy date of March 15 and a sell date of December 7, investors have benefited from a total return of 486.51% over the last 10 years. This scenario has shown positive results in 7 of those periods.

Conversely, the best return over the maximum number of positive periods reveals a buy date of October 8 and a sell date of December 7, producing a total return over the same 10-year range of 137.8% with positive results in 9 of those periods.

The buy and hold return for the past 10 years was 110.72%.

Technical Analysis

Support 2

Support 1

Pivot Point

Resistance1

Resistance2

The Numbers

88.33

89.06

89.79

90.52

91.25

Most Recent Close:

89.80

Support/Resistance Analys

Broke Upr Resistance (2)

52-Week High:

92.59

MACD Analysis:

Positive/Increasing

52-Week Low:

41.10

MACD vs. Signal:

Above/Widening

Fib. Retracement:

~ 100%

RSI Analysis:

Increasingly Overbought

50-Day MA:

83.08

Stochastic (Fast) Analysis:

Overbought and Declini

200-Day MA:

74.28

50 vs 200-Day MA Analysis:

50-day Above 200-Day MA

High Critical Level:

87.85

Year over Year Trend:

Strongly Gaining

Low Critical Value:

77.99

Critical Level Analysis:

Broke Above Previous Tren

Average Monthly Gain:

9.1%

MFI Analysis

Above 50 Advancing

Technical Rating:

Candlestick Analysis

Bullish

On a scale of 1 to 10, the higher the rating, the more appealing the investment is to buy at current levels.

Situational Analysis

Past Year

Advancing Sessions %

Return %

10-Year Average

Advancing Sessions %

Return %

Mar 17 thru Apr 16

57.1

29.2

Mar 17 thru Apr 16

51.5

5.1

Best Return: 29.2% – Sell Apr 16

Best Return: 10% – Sell Apr 1

Mar 17 thru Jun 15

56.5

23.9

Mar 17 thru Jun 15

50.3

4.3

Best Return: 47% – Sell May 6

Best Return: 13.5% – Sell Apr 26

Mar 17 thru Sep 13

58.1

84.9

Mar 17 thru Sep 13

49.1

11.2

Best Return: 84.9% – Sell Sep 11

Best Return: 19.9% – Sell Jun 14

Following Earnings Releases – Last 12 Periods

During Equivalent Periods of Economic Recovery where Unemployment has Peaked

12-Period Average

Advancing Sessions %

Return %

2-Period Average

Advancing Sessions %

Return %

30 Days After

-0.1

90 Days After

43.2

16.1

Best Return: 5.9% – After 16 Days on Average

Best Return: 20.9% – After 75 Days on Average

60 Days After

46.6

-1.2

180 Days After

44.9

22.6

Best Return: 9.3% – After 28 Days on Average

Best Return: 34.4% – After 111 Dyas on Average

90 Days After

48.6

360 Days After

47.1

36.6

Best Return: 12.3% – After 43 Days on Average

Best Return: 38.8% – After 239 Days on Average

Further Analysis

Sector:

Services

Industry:

Air Delivery & Freight Services

According to Thackray’s 2010 Investors Guide, the seasonality for the Industrials Sector is limited to Market Perform, implying that a period of strength that would garner results greater than the correlating benchmark is non-existent. The sector is a virtual barometer of real GDP growth in the U.S. The sector moves higher when expectations for economic growth are positive and moves lower when expectations are negative.

Current Consensus Recommend:

Outperform

Recommendation 1-Month Ago:

Outperform

Recommendation 3-Months Ago:

Outperform

Disclaimer

Analysis, comments, calculations, and opinions offered in this report, available via EquityClock.com, are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.