Market Outlook for March 18, 2010
Upcoming Events for Today:
- The Department of Labor will release the Consumer Price Index for February at 8:30am. Consensus is an increase by 0.1% versus 0.2% previous. Core CPI is expected to come in at 0.1% as well, versus –0.1% previous.
- Weekly Jobless Claims are to be released at 8:30am. Initial Claims are expected to come in at 455K versus 462K previous. Continuing Claims are expected to come in at 4522K versus 4558K previous.
- The Current Account Balance for the fourth quarter is to be released at 8:30am. Consensus is –119.3B versus –108.0B previous.
- The Conference Board is expected to release the leading indicators report for February at 10:00am. Consensus is 0.1% versus 0.3% previous.
- The Philadelphia Federal Index for March is to be released at 10:00am. Market expects 18.0 versus 17.6 previously.
The Markets
| Market | Close | % Change | Expected ST Low | Expected ST High |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) | 10,733.67 | 0.45% | 10,040.45 | 10,629.08 |
| Dow Jones Transportation Average (^DJT) | 4,378.41 | 0.10% | 3,852.35 | 4,319.23 |
| Dow Jones Utility Average (^DJU) | 384.01 | 0.32% | 367.11 | 379.91 |
| S&P 500 (^GSPC) | 1,166.21 | 0.58% | 1,068.85 | 1,150.92 |
| S&P/TSE Composite (^GSPTSE) | 12,100.66 | 0.09% | 11,251.67 | 12,010.39 |
| NASDAQ Composite (^IXIC) | 2,389.09 | 0.47% | 2,148.98 | 2,362.77 |
| Austrian Traded Index (^ATX) | 2,609.49 | 1.11% | 2,425.16 | 2,563.40 |
| French CAC 40 (^FCHI) | 3,957.89 | 0.48% | 3,613.15 | 3,928.71 |
| German DAX (^GDAXI) | 6,024.28 | 0.89% | 5,503.00 | 5,943.37 |
| UK FTSE 100 (^FTSE) | 5,644.60 | 0.43% | 5,123.21 | 5,619.51 |
| China HANG SENG INDEX (^HSI) | 21,384.49 | 1.72% | 19,873.44 | 21,189.33 |
| Korea KOSPI Composite Index (^KS11) | 1,682.86 | 2.11% | 1,574.32 | 1,661.59 |
| Tokyo NIKKEI 225 (^N225) | 10,846.98 | 1.17% | 10,019.86 | 10,696.29 |
| Swiss Market Index (^SSMI) | 6,892.00 | 0.26% | 6,356.37 | 6,862.87 |
| Brazilian IBOVESPA (^BVSP) | 69,723.00 | -0.31% | 64,224.13 | 69,619.18 |
Markets on mass produced gains yet again on Wednesday. It appears the historical tendency of investors being more upbeat on St. Patrick’s Day has repeated itself. Now I must admit, the gains in the market at present aren’t simply a result of the luck of the Irish, but rather other factors, such as Triple Witching coming this Friday in which investors are offsetting positions prior to this event. Fundamental factors, as well, continue to play a key role in the strength of the market with the US Senate passing a key jobs bill today. Analysts are viewing the market’s breakthrough of key technical levels yesterday as being optimistic for future growth.
Market Sentiment using options volumes is moving from becoming increasingly bullish to a bearish shift with an increasing number of puts purchased for each call trading hands. Current total volume option put/call ratio is 0.86.
Sectors that Moved the Market
| Sector | % Price Change | % Volume Change |
| Energy Sector | 1.10% | 13.10% |
| Basic Materials Sector | 0.56% | -35.03% |
| Financial Sector | 1.21% | 22.44% |
| Health Care Sector | 0.03% | 103.13% |
| Consumer Discretionary Sector | 0.49% | 5.21% |
| Industrials Sector | 0.16% | -23.33% |
| Technology Sector | 0.31% | 48.31% |
| Utilities Sector | 0.33% | 6.55% |
| Consumer Staples Sector | 0.43% | -26.22% |
Financials and energy were the biggest gainers on the day, both revealing returns of more than 1%. Health Care showed the greatest change in volume as debates continue regarding the proposed American health care bill.
S&P 500
Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com
| Support 2 | Support 1 | Pivot Point | Resistance 1 | Resistance 2 |
| 1155.43 | 1160.82 | 1165.33 | 1170.72 | 1175.23 |
The S&P 500 continued its advance past key technical levels as it charted paths higher, paying little attention to the overwhelming number of days in which gains have been seen as of recent. Next target is 1200. The desire to remain invested in this market remains strong, yet the hesitation of investors taking profits after this strong rally still remains. Further upside potential is becoming increasingly slim in the immediate short-term, however further advances prior to first quarter earnings releases in April are expected. Therefore, be prepared for profit taking, yet remain positioned to benefit off these end of quarter gains.
Total Returns
Yesterday: 0.58% – Trailing 5 days: 1.80% – Trailing 30 days: 8.43%
Averages for current day based on past 20 years of data
- Current Day: 0.70% with 57.14% of sessions gaining
- Next 7 days: 0.38% with 47.75% of sessions gaining (Max return: 1.62% by March 20 on Average)
- Next 30 days: 0.90% with 51.50% of sessions gaining (Max return: 2.94% by April 4 on Average)
TSE Composite
| Support 2 | Support 1 | Pivot Point | Resistance 1 | Resistance 2 |
| 12067.84 | 12084.25 | 12101.73 | 12118.14 | 12135.62 |
The TSE also continued its climb past technical levels that previously acted to resist the trend. The market is certainly overbought and further activity is expected to be subdued.
Total Returns
Yesterday: 0.09% – Trailing 5 days: 1.05% – Trailing 30 days: 4.00%
Averages for current day based on past 10 years of data
- Current Day: 0.04% with 50.00% of sessions gaining
- Next 7 days: 0.11% with 48.33% of sessions gaining (Max return: 1.69% by March 20 on Average)
- Next 30 days: 1.02% with 52.39% of sessions gaining (Max return: 3.85% by April 1 on Average)
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