Potash Corp./Saskatchewan (USA) (Public, NYSE:POT) – Clock That Stock
The Stock
Potash Corp. (NYSE:POT, TSE:POT) increased its guidance for first quarter earnings yesterday from $0.70 – $1.00 a share to $1.30 – $1.50. Consensus estimate prior to this release was $0.97 for the quarter ending March 31, 2010. The stock has rallied almost 8% on the day as a result. It’s almost obvious from this news that the fundamentals of this company are very good. The stock is poised for strong gains through this year and institutions are heavily adding to their positions as a result. Fundamental targets place this stock, traded on the NYSE, at $150 to $175.
Market sentiment using option volumes on current month contracts are showing that 0.86 puts are trading for each call. This is much more bullish than the open interest for the equivalent contracts at a bearish 1.01 puts for each call. Sentiment is in-line for the trend to continue.
Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com
The Clock
The seasonal chart shows strong stock price appreciation during the month of April, leading up to the release of Q1 earnings on April 28. This strength runs through to the beginning of May producing gains of around 10% on average. This corresponds nicely to the end of the period of strength in the materials sector overall.
| Potash Corp. (POT) 116.93 | -1.32 (-1.12%) | ||||||||||||||||||||
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| Seasonality Analysis | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Analysis has revealed that with a buy date of October 22 and a sell date of September 20, investors have benefited from a total return of 2680.11% over the last 10 years. This scenario has shown positive results in 10 of those periods. | |||||||||||||||||||||
| The buy and hold return for the past 10 years was 1405.69%. | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Technical Analysis | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Support 2 | Support 1 | Pivot Point | Resistance1 | Resistance2 | The Numbers | ||||||||||||||||
| 115.08 | 116.01 | 116.98 | 117.91 | 118.88 | Most Recent Close: | 116.93 | |||||||||||||||
| Support/Resistance Analys | Broke Upr Support (1) | 52-Week High: | 126.47 | ||||||||||||||||||
| MACD Analysis: | Positive/Increasing | 52-Week Low: | 73.27 | ||||||||||||||||||
| MACD vs. Signal: | Above/Thinning | Fib. Retracement: | ~ 78.6% | ||||||||||||||||||
| RSI Analysis: | Above 50 | 50-Day MA: | 112.31 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Stochastic (Fast) Analysis: | Overbought and Declini | 200-Day MA: | 102.71 | ||||||||||||||||||
| 50 vs 200-Day MA Analysis: | 50-day Above 200-Day MA | High Critical Level: | 117.08 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Year over Year Trend: | Strongly Gaining | Low Critical Value: | 102.71 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Critical Level Analysis: | Broke Above Previous Tren | Average Monthly Gain: | 4.2% | ||||||||||||||||||
| MFI Analysis | Above 50 Declining | Technical Rating: | 6 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Candlestick Analysis | Downward Momentum | On a scale of 1 to 10, the higher the rating, the more appealing the investment is to buy at current levels. | |||||||||||||||||||
| Situational Analysis | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Past Year | Advancing Sessions % | Return % | 10-Year Average | Advancing Sessions % | Return % | ||||||||||||||||
| Mar 11 thru Apr 10 | 52.4 | 9.6 | Mar 11 thru Apr 10 | 51.2 | 6.9 | ||||||||||||||||
| Best Return: 14.3% – Sell Mar 26 | Best Return: 9.2% – Sell Mar 31 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Mar 11 thru Jun 9 | 53.2 | 48 | Mar 11 thru Jun 9 | 51.5 | 17.7 | ||||||||||||||||
| Best Return: 50.5% – Sell May 26 | Best Return: 22.9% – Sell May 11 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Mar 11 thru Sep 7 | 47.6 | 14.8 | Mar 11 thru Sep 7 | 50.4 | 20.6 | ||||||||||||||||
| Best Return: 51% – Sell Jun 11 | Best Return: 34.3% – Sell Jul 13 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Following Earnings Releases – Last 12 Periods | During Equivalent Periods of Economic Recovery where Unemployment has Peaked | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 12-Period Average | Advancing Sessions % | Return % | 2-Period Average | Advancing Sessions % | Return % | ||||||||||||||||
| 30 Days After | 57.7 | 10.2 | 90 Days After | 45.2 | 3.6 | ||||||||||||||||
| Best Return: 19.1% – After 18 Days on Average | Best Return: 8% – After 31 Days on Average | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 60 Days After | 54 | 12.5 | 180 Days After | 43.3 | 4 | ||||||||||||||||
| Best Return: 25.6% – After 36 Days on Average | Best Return: 13.5% – After 71 Days on Average | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 90 Days After | 53.9 | 15.7 | 360 Days After | 42.9 | 24.7 | ||||||||||||||||
| Best Return: 33.9% – After 60 Days on Average | Best Return: 27.2% – After 341 Days on Average | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Further Analysis | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Sector: | Basic Materials | Industry: | Agricultural Chemicals | ||||||||||||||||||
| According to Thackray’s 2010 Investors Guide, the period of seasonal strength for the Materials Sector ranges from November 19th through to May 5th. Seasonal strength in the sector corresponds with the traditional period when demand for base materials increase. | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Current Consensus Recommend: | Outperform | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Recommendation 1-Month Ago: | Hold | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Recommendation 3-Months Ago: | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Disclaimer | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Analysis, comments, calculations, and opinions offered in this report, available via EquityClock.com, are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed. | |||||||||||||||||||||
| © 2010 EquityClock.com, member of the Tech Talk Financial Network | |||||||||||||||||||||
Stocks mentioned in this post: POT
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