Market Outlook for March 12, 2010
Upcoming Events for Today:
- The Department of Commerce releases the retail sales for February at 8:30am. Expectation is a loss of 0.2% versus a gain of 0.5% previous. Excluding autos, the market expects a gain of 0.1% versus a gain of 0.6% previous.
- Consumer Sentiment for March will be released at 10:00am. Expectation is a gain to 74.0 versus 73.6 previous.
- The Department of Commerce releases Business Inventories for January at 10:00am. Expectation is an increase to 0.1% versus –0.2% previous.
Due up for next week: Industrial Production, Producer Price Index, Consumer Price Index, Housing Starts
The Markets
| Market | Close | % Change | Expected ST Low | Expected ST High |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) | 10,611.84 | 0.42% | 10,032.40 | 10,529.55 |
| Dow Jones Transportation Average (^DJT) | 4,320.38 | 0.57% | 3,852.87 | 4,236.83 |
| Dow Jones Utility Average (^DJU) | 378.79 | 0.36% | 367.11 | 380.21 |
| S&P 500 (^GSPC) | 1,150.24 | 0.40% | 1,068.32 | 1,136.13 |
| S&P/TSE Composite (^GSPTSE) | 11,979.70 | 0.16% | 11,206.34 | 11,918.30 |
| NASDAQ Composite (^IXIC) | 2,368.46 | 0.40% | 2,146.29 | 2,326.55 |
| Austrian Traded Index (^ATX) | 2,518.32 | 0.04% | 2,425.16 | 2,547.40 |
| French CAC 40 (^FCHI) | 3,928.95 | -0.37% | 3,613.15 | 3,888.06 |
| German DAX (^GDAXI) | 5,928.63 | -0.14% | 5,503.00 | 5,859.39 |
| UK FTSE 100 (^FTSE) | 5,617.30 | -0.41% | 5,122.28 | 5,565.75 |
| China HANG SENG INDEX (^HSI) | 21,228.20 | 0.09% | 19,842.09 | 21,087.58 |
| Korea KOSPI Composite Index (^KS11) | 1,656.62 | -0.34% | 1,574.32 | 1,650.26 |
| Tokyo NIKKEI 225 (^N225) | 10,664.95 | 0.96% | 10,019.86 | 10,507.97 |
| Swiss Market Index (^SSMI) | 6,851.70 | -0.32% | 6,354.00 | 6,837.96 |
| Brazilian IBOVESPA (^BVSP) | 69,885.00 | -0.13% | 64,162.92 | 69,003.04 |
| Mexico’s IPC (^MXX) | 32,602.94 | 0.30% | 30,631.13 | 32,417.84 |
| Amsterdam Exchange Index (^AEX) | 339.02 | -0.57% | 316.40 | 337.05 |
| New Zealand NZX 50 INDEX GROSS (^NZ50) | 3,223.45 | -0.08% | 3,081.48 | 3,212.68 |
Markets on majority produced gaining sessions on Thursday. The S&P 500, TSE Composite and the NASDAQ are witnessing their closing values in the past couple of days in the bullish range, ending the day in the upper realm of their daily trading ranges. This is certainly favorable to continue the upward trend. The markets continue to push past overbought technical signals to find new short-term highs.
Market Sentiment using total option volumes is trending more to the bearish side, but continues within a reasonable range to not draw upon any extreme conclusions. Options traded today at 0.93 puts for each call.
Sectors that Moved the Market
| Sector | % Price Change | % Volume Change |
| Energy Sector | -0.17% | -24.98% |
| Basic Materials Sector | 0.58% | -30.29% |
| Financial Sector | 0.84% | -39.83% |
| Health Care Sector | 0.79% | 48.49% |
| Consumer Discretionary Sector | 0.72% | -3.14% |
| Industrials Sector | 0.37% | -0.26% |
| Technology Sector | 0.40% | -67.75% |
| Utilities Sector | 0.33% | -4.77% |
| Consumer Staples Sector | 0.18% | 33.04% |
Energy was the only laggard on the day with Financials, Health Care and Consumer Discretionary leading the way. Technology showed the greatest change in activity, trading at around a third of its previous days action.
S&P 500
Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com
| Support 2 | Support 1 | Pivot Point | Resistance 1 | Resistance 2 |
| 1135.24 | 1142.74 | 1146.49 | 1153.99 | 1157.74 |
The S&P 500 hit exactly upon the level it topped out at during the beginning of the year. The index hasn’t touched levels such as this in 18 months. If the trend continues, technical targets place the index in the 1200 range, however good momentum past current levels is required. Over the past 30 days, over 71% of sessions have produced gains.
Total Returns
Yesterday: 0.40% – Trailing 5 days: 2.43% – Trailing 30 days: 7.45%
Averages for current day based on past 20 years of data
- Current Day: –0.15% with 40.00% of sessions gaining
- Next 7 days: 1.25% with 61.00% of sessions gaining (Max return: 1.72% by March 16 on Average)
- Next 30 days: 1.71% with 52.60% of sessions gaining (Max return: 3.57% by March 29 on Average)
TSE Composite
Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com
| Support 2 | Support 1 | Pivot Point | Resistance 1 | Resistance 2 |
| 11884.79 | 11932.25 | 11957.00 | 12004.46 | 12029.21 |
Canadian markets inched out another gain today, but the charts show a slowing trend. Favorable news released tonight regarding PotashCorp significantly revising earnings estimates to almost double what were reported previously is expected to have favorable influences on the market on Friday.
Total Returns
Yesterday: 0.16% – Trailing 5 days: 3.01% – Trailing 30 days: 4.76%
Averages for current day based on past 10 years of data
- Current Day: 0.01% with 42.86% of sessions gaining
- Next 7 days: 0.59% with 56.00% of sessions gaining (Max return: 1.38% by March 15 on Average)
- Next 30 days: 2.5% with 54.17% of sessions gaining (Max return: 4.02% by March 28 on Average)
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