Market Outlook for March 11, 2010
Upcoming Events for Today:
- The Department of Labor will be releasing the weekly jobless claims at 8:30am. Initial Claims are expected to come in at 460K versus 469K previous. Continuing Claims are expected to remain unchanged at 4500K.
- The Department of Commerce is Expected to release the Trade Balance for January at 8:30am. Expectation is a net balance of -$41.0B versus -$40.2B previous.
Due up for tomorrow: Retail Sales, Consumer Sentiment, Business Inventories
The Markets
| Market | Close | % Change | Expected ST Low | Expected ST High |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) | 10,567.33 | 0.03% | 10,032.40 | 10,508.90 |
| Dow Jones Transportation Average (^DJT) | 4,295.72 | 0.62% | 3,852.87 | 4,213.65 |
| Dow Jones Utility Average (^DJU) | 377.45 | 0.28% | 367.11 | 381.13 |
| S&P 500 (^GSPC) | 1,145.61 | 0.45% | 1,068.32 | 1,132.22 |
| S&P/TSE Composite (^GSPTSE) | 11,961.06 | 0.36% | 11,204.28 | 11,896.55 |
| NASDAQ Composite (^IXIC) | 2,358.95 | 0.78% | 2,146.29 | 2,315.15 |
| Austrian Traded Index (^ATX) | 2,517.37 | 1.25% | 2,425.16 | 2,547.80 |
| French CAC 40 (^FCHI) | 3,943.55 | 0.86% | 3,612.86 | 3,872.31 |
| German DAX (^GDAXI) | 5,936.72 | 0.86% | 5,505.48 | 5,834.98 |
| UK FTSE 100 (^FTSE) | 5,640.60 | 0.68% | 5,122.17 | 5,539.94 |
| China HANG SENG INDEX (^HSI) | 21,208.29 | 0.00% | 19,845.14 | 21,034.13 |
| Korea KOSPI Composite Index (^KS11) | 1,662.24 | 0.08% | 1,574.32 | 1,647.64 |
| Tokyo NIKKEI 225 (^N225) | 10,563.92 | -0.04% | 10,019.86 | 10,471.46 |
| Swiss Market Index (^SSMI) | 6,873.60 | 0.08% | 6,355.37 | 6,814.57 |
| Brazilian IBOVESPA (^BVSP) | 69,979.00 | 0.58% | 64,183.35 | 68,784.54 |
| Mexico’s IPC (^MXX) | 32,505.76 | -0.03% | 30,581.86 | 32,375.54 |
| Amsterdam Exchange Index (^AEX) | 340.97 | 0.55% | 316.40 | 336.05 |
| New Zealand NZX 50 INDEX GROSS (^NZ50) | 3,226.19 | 0.40% | 3,081.48 | 3,207.50 |
Indices all around the world overwhelmingly reported gains on Wednesday, rallying off of fundamental influences favorably impacting stocks. Only two indices are trading within their expected range (DJU and ATX), implying that markets on mass are forming a new upward trend. Technicals remain mixed after the large run-up over recent weeks, however there are clear signs of continued upward momentum pushing through technical targets as stocks continue their climb.
Market sentiment using options volumes is neither overly bullish, nor overly bearish with a total put/call ratio of 0.82 (0.82 puts for each call trading hands today).
Sectors that Moved the Market
| Sector | % Price Change | % Volume Change |
| Energy Sector | 0.88% | 4.00% |
| Basic Materials Sector | 0.03% | 34.72% |
| Financial Sector | 1.11% | 12.16% |
| Health Care Sector | 0.06% | -16.03% |
| Consumer Discretionary Sector | 0.22% | -6.06% |
| Industrials Sector | 0.20% | 4.11% |
| Technology Sector | 0.67% | 40.88% |
| Utilities Sector | 0.03% | -2.26% |
| Consumer Staples Sector | -0.15% | -0.65% |
Financials showed the majority of gains today, followed by energy and technology. Technology ended the day with almost 40% more activity than the day previous.
S&P 500
Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com
| Support 2 | Support 1 | Pivot Point | Resistance 1 | Resistance 2 |
| 1136.48 | 1141.05 | 1144.65 | 1149.22 | 1152.82 |
Fundamentals remain the driving force behind the upward shift, although investors are keeping a close eye on key technical targets to determine if the trend will breakthrough to further gains. Target continues to be 1150, which is around the level we topped out at during the beginning of the year. Expectation is that seasonal and fundamental influences will allow the market to break through this level in the short term.
Total Returns
Yesterday: 0.45% – Trailing 5 days: 2.4% – Trailing 30 days: 8.41%
Averages for current day based on past 20 years of data
- Current Day: 0.14% with 50.00% of sessions gaining
- Next 7 days: 0.84% with 60.00% of sessions gaining (Max return: 1.70% by March 14 on Average)
- Next 30 days: 1.62% with 52.19% of sessions gaining (Max return: 3.86% by March 27 on Average)
TSE Composite
Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com
| Support 2 | Support 1 | Pivot Point | Resistance 1 | Resistance 2 |
| 11879.35 | 11920.20 | 11957.41 | 11998.26 | 12035.47 |
Canadian markets continue to remain at a short-term top, with investors reluctant to push through without the fundamental influences that are taking favor over the US markets. Seasonal influences remain strong.
Total Returns
Yesterday: 0.36% – Trailing 5 days: 2.85% – Trailing 30 days: 5.98%
Averages for current day based on past 10 years of data
- Current Day: 0.61% with 66.67% of sessions gaining
- Next 7 days: 0.93% with 58.50% of sessions gaining (Max return: 1.82% by March 14 on Average)
- Next 30 days: 2.42% with 54.03% of sessions gaining (Max return: 4.51% by March 28 on Average)
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