Black & Decker Corp (NYSE:BDK) and Expeditors International (NASDAQ:EXPD)

Stock_Numbers

Highlighting: Black & Decker Corporation (NYSE:BDK), Expeditors International of Washington (NASDAQ:EXPD)

Today’s report goes off the screen of stocks making technical signals and turns to market sentiment. Yesterday Tech Talk reported that Black & Decker Corporation and Expeditors International of Washington topped the list as being overly bearish on the day according to option activity. BDK had 41 times more puts trade hands yesterday than calls and EXPD had almost 8 times more puts than calls. Yet throughout this bearish sentiment, the stocks showed gains on the day. Please refer to the Market Sentiment report for the complete list of stocks revealing overly bullish and bearish sentiments.

Before we get started, a summary of the day is in order. Of the 675 stocks analyzed on the S&P 500 and TSE Composite, 475 advanced, 187 declined and the remaining 13 were flat on the day. Gains averaged a respectable 0.64% on volumes 3.19% higher than the day previous. Markets remain strongly positioned with 78.5% of stocks above the 50-day moving average level.


Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com
BLACK DECKER CP (BDK)
	75.58	+ 0.14 (0.19%)

Support 2	Support 1	Pivot Point	Resistance 1	Resistance 2
74.38	74.98	75.40	76.00	76.42
Expected Short-Term Trading Range: 66.36 – 74.78

Support & Resistance Analysis		Neutral
MACD Analysis		Positive/Increasing		MACD
MACD vs. Signal		Above/Thinning		1.923
RSI Analysis		Bullish		RSI
Stochastic (Fast) Analysis		Increasingly Overbought		68.252
50-Day MA Analysis		Above 50-Day MA		%K (fast)
200-Day MA Analysis		Above 200-Day MA		89.740
Critical Level Analysis		Broke Above Previous Trend

BLACK DECKER CP (BDK) Seasonality
Analysis has revealed that with a buy date of March 9 and a sell date of November 4, investors have benefited from a total return of 417.79% over the last 10 years. This scenario has shown positive results in 7 of those periods.
Conversely, the best return over the maximum number of positive periods reveals a buy date of March 30 and a sell date of May 2, producing a total return over the same 10-year range of 183.45% with positive results in 10 of those periods.
The buy and hold return for the past 10 years was 47.29%.
Comments:
The fundamentals for this machinery and equipment maker by no means imply value at present levels. The stock is currently overvalued and trading above its expected trading range. However, this stock does have some redeeming qualities. The seasonality for this equity begins precisely around this timeframe and stretches through to the beginning of May for an 8% gain on average. The rally in the stock nicely corresponds to the time of year when home improvement comes back into fashion during the spring/summer months, and tools are required by consumers to perform the job. Industrials generally reveal a seasonal profile similar to that of the market, and this one is no different showing negligible growth during the summer months and a correction prior to the fall rally. Considering the abundance of puts purchased against each call yesterday, the stock may be painted too bearish for its own good, so I’m watching for a break to the upside while keeping a tight stop around the noted expected high of 74.78, which is currently below the current price as it builds upon its upward trend.
News Headlines for BLACK DECKER CP (BDK)
Don't Buy This Stock ... Yet - Thu, 12 Aug 2010 Stocks Lose Over 1% After Bernanke Remarks - Wed, 21 Jul 2010 Stocks Skid as Bernanke Testifies; Apple Rises - Wed, 21 Jul 2010

Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com
Expeditors International of Was (EXPD)
	37.05	+ 0.43 (1.17%)

Support 2	Support 1	Pivot Point	Resistance 1	Resistance 2
36.15	36.60	36.96	37.41	37.77
Expected Short-Term Trading Range: 33.18 – 36.77

Support & Resistance Analysis		Broke Upr Resistance (2)
MACD Analysis		Positive/Increasing		MACD
MACD vs. Signal		Above/Widening		0.684
RSI Analysis		Bullish		RSI
Stochastic (Fast) Analysis		Neutral		68.552
50-Day MA Analysis		Above 50-Day MA		%K (fast)
200-Day MA Analysis		Above 200-Day MA		75.632
Critical Level Analysis		Broke Above Previous Trend

Expeditors International of Was (EXPD) Seasonality
Analysis has revealed that with a buy date of August 2 and a sell date of July 1, investors have benefited from a total return of 783.91% over the last 10 years. This scenario has shown positive results in 9 of those periods.
Conversely, the best return over the maximum number of positive periods reveals a buy date of August 2 and a sell date of June 1, producing a total return over the same 10-year range of 726.71% with positive results in 10 of those periods.
The buy and hold return for the past 10 years was 235.62%.
Comments:
I present to you your Trade Balance play. The Trade Balance figures are expected to be released this morning, and the expectation is that imports will exceed exports by a greater margin than previous. The company specializes in the movement of goods worldwide, and with the depreciating US Dollar, trade with our American neighbors may become a trend, and guess who’s in a prime position to benefit: EXPD. The fundamentals are sound and place the value of the stock at around $43.00. The stock appears to have found a decent short-term support at around $36, limiting downside risks. The stock does not reveal a defined period of seasonal strength, however the 19-year chart still shows averages of well over 10% between now and the beginning of June.
News Headlines for Expeditors International of Was (EXPD)
UTi Worldwide – Still A Name To Play In Freight - Mon, 06 Sep 2010 The One Thing to Know About United Parcel Service - Tue, 31 Aug 2010 Is UPS Spending Your Money Wisely? - Tue, 31 Aug 2010

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Disclosure: Mr. Vialoux does not own securities mentioned in this report.
Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report at EquityClock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities.
Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.