Equity Clock

The fundamentals for this machinery and equipment maker by no means imply value at present levels.   The stock is currently overvalued and trading above its expected trading range.  However, this stock does have some redeeming qualities.   The seasonality for this equity begins precisely around this timeframe and stretches through to the beginning of May for an 8% gain on average.  The rally in the stock nicely corresponds to the time of year when home improvement comes back into fashion during the spring/summer months, and tools are required by consumers to perform the job.

Industrials generally reveal a seasonal profile similar to that of the market, and this one is no different showing negligible growth during the summer months and a correction prior to the fall rally.   Considering the abundance of puts purchased against each call yesterday, the stock may be painted too bearish for its own good, so I’m watching for a break to the upside while keeping a tight stop around the noted expected high of 74.78, which is currently below the current price as it builds upon its upward trend.

I present to you your Trade Balance play.   The Trade Balance figures are expected to be released this morning, and the expectation is that imports will exceed exports by a greater margin than previous.   The company specializes in the movement of goods worldwide, and with the depreciating US Dollar, trade with our American neighbors may become a trend, and guess who’s in a prime position to benefit: EXPD.  The fundamentals are sound and place the value of the stock at around $43.00.   The stock appears to have found a decent short-term support at around $36, limiting downside risks.   The stock does not reveal a defined period of seasonal strength, however the 19-year chart still shows averages of well over 10% between now and the beginning of June.