Market Outlook for March 10, 2010
Upcoming Events for Today:
- The Department of Commerce releases the Wholesale Inventories for January at 10:00am. Consensus is an increase of 0.2% from a loss of 0.8% previous.
- The Treasury Budget for February will be released at 2:00pm. Consensus is –221.0B versus –42.6B previous.
Due up for tomorrow: Jobless Claims, Trade Balance
The Markets
| Market | Close | % Change | Expected ST Low | Expected ST High |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) | 10564.38 | 0.11% | 10032.40 | 10486.62 |
| Dow Jones Transportation Average (^DJT) | 4269.16 | 1.31% | 3852.87 | 4186.70 |
| Dow Jones Utility Average (^DJU) | 376.41 | -0.30% | 367.11 | 382.47 |
| S&P 500 (^GSPC) | 1140.45 | 0.17% | 1068.32 | 1127.61 |
| S&P/TSE Composite (^GSPTSE) | 11918.71 | -0.38% | 11203.93 | 11866.01 |
| NASDAQ Composite (^IXIC) | 2340.68 | 0.36% | 2146.29 | 2302.43 |
| Austrian Traded Index (^ATX) | 2486.24 | -0.24% | 2425.16 | 2548.89 |
| French CAC 40 (^FCHI) | 3910.01 | 0.17% | 3612.86 | 3853.04 |
| German DAX (^GDAXI) | 5885.89 | 0.17% | 5505.48 | 5810.31 |
| UK FTSE 100 (^FTSE) | 5602.30 | -0.08% | 5122.17 | 5514.55 |
| China HANG SENG INDEX (^HSI) | 21207.55 | 0.05% | 19845.14 | 20966.48 |
| Korea KOSPI Composite Index (^KS11) | 1660.83 | 0.05% | 1574.32 | 1650.13 |
| Tokyo NIKKEI 225 (^N225) | 10567.65 | -0.17% | 10019.86 | 10444.94 |
| Swiss Market Index (^SSMI) | 6868.30 | 0.25% | 6355.37 | 6800.32 |
| Brazilian IBOVESPA (^BVSP) | 69576.00 | 1.46% | 64183.35 | 68376.45 |
| Mexico’s IPC (^MXX) | 32514.17 | -0.02% | 30561.46 | 32308.24 |
| Amsterdam Exchange Index (^AEX) | 339.09 | 0.27% | 316.40 | 334.67 |
| New Zealand NZX 50 INDEX GROSS (^NZ50) | 3213.21 | -0.30% | 3081.48 | 3204.42 |
Markets were mixed for the second day in a row on a rather quiet Tuesday. Tuesday marked the one year anniversary of the market bottom during the economic downturn. Technicals are highly mixed at current levels. Initial indications are signs of topping out, however the fundamental and seasonal influences remain strong to allow the uptrend to continue.
Market sentiment using total option volumes is overly bullish at 0.68 puts purchased for each call, indicating a short-term top may exist at current levels.
Sectors that Moved the Market
| Sector | % Price Change | % Volume Change |
| Energy Sector | 0.00% | 32.44% |
| Basic Materials Sector | -0.63% | 6.88% |
| Financial Sector | 0.33% | 69.46% |
| Health Care Sector | -0.06% | 10.71% |
| Consumer Discretionary Sector | -0.16% | 23.43% |
| Industrials Sector | 0.81% | 12.35% |
| Technology Sector | 0.45% | 104.83% |
| Utilities Sector | -0.13% | 13.00% |
| Consumer Staples Sector | -0.15% | 71.05% |
Industrials had the biggest run-up today, followed by technology and financials. These were the only sectors producing gains on the day, rallying on fundamental influences present in the market. Technology showed the greatest volume change for the same reason.
S&P 500
Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com
| Support 2 | Support 1 | Pivot Point | Resistance 1 | Resistance 2 |
| 1129.77 | 1135.11 | 1140.24 | 1145.58 | 1150.71 |
The chart is providing initial indications of topping out. But how can this be? Where is the March strength that is to take us through the month? Fundamentals remain strong and seasonal influences remain intact. Best bet is to keep tight “stops” on your positions that will lock in recent gains at a predefined level should the market turn sour. Traders are waiting for the market to break through the previous top of 1150, therefore watch this level and react accordingly.
Total Returns
Yesterday: 0.17% – Trailing 5 days: 1.98% – Trailing 30 days: 6.96%
Averages for current day based on past 20 years of data
- Current Day: 0.39% with 64.29% of sessions gaining
- Next 7 days: 0.71% with 58.00% of sessions gaining (Max return: 1.63% by March 12 on Average)
- Next 30 days: 1.78% with 52.53% of sessions gaining (Max return: 4.11% by March 26 on Average)
TSE Composite
Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com
| Support 2 | Support 1 | Pivot Point | Resistance 1 | Resistance 2 |
| 11854.06 | 11886.38 | 11925.74 | 11958.06 | 11997.42 |
The Canadian markets are already revealing the short-term top that the US markets are currently providing initial indications of. However, this top remains merely short-term and prospects appear favorable for further appreciation. The short-term expected trading range is quickly catching up to this market that has slowed its intermediate trend.
Total Returns
Yesterday: –0.38% – Trailing 5 days: 2.49% – Trailing 30 days: 5.72%
Averages for current day based on past 10 years of data
- Current Day: –0.26% with 33.33% of sessions gaining
- Next 7 days: 0.24% with 54.00% of sessions gaining (Max return: 1.19% by March 13 on Average)
- Next 30 days: 1.96% with 53.22% of sessions gaining (Max return: 4.22% by March 27 on Average)
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