Equity Clock

American International Group, Inc. (Public, NYSE:AIG) – Clock That Stock

Clock_That_Stock

The Stock

American International Group, Inc. (Public, NYSE:AIG) has shown a large run-up over the past two days on news that Met Life will acquire one of AIG’s subsidiaries for $15.5B. An announcement was also made of a secondary public offering of its shares in Transatlantic Holdings, Inc. Investors have rallied off this news of the sale of assets to prop up the stock to an over 8% gain on the day.

These actions are small steps in putting this financially beleaguered behemoth back on the path of a profitable business entity. Analysts are expecting the company to come back in the black in the current calendar year, and the company certainly seems to be scrambling to assure it meets these targets by having a lawn sale of anything they can get a price for.

Market Sentiment when looking at options volumes indicates investors are overly bearish on this equity at 1.52 puts purchased today for each call. Open interest paints the same picture with 1.66 puts for each call on current month contracts. The Equity put/call ratio for the market at the time of writing is 0.47.

Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com

The Clock

The seasonal picture of this stock is terribly misleading when looking at the 20-year chart due to the volatility in the price of the stock over the last 2 years. The seasonal chart reveals a large appreciation in the value of the stock precisely around this period, which is what we are currently witnessing, however, if we eliminate the returns for the past two years of data, returns are seen to be more modest going forward. The company generally finds its stock price appreciating around mid-March, along with the rest of the financials, and this ranges through to the summer months when the strength in the markets fade.

American International Grp. (AIG) 32.77

+ 3.67 (12.61%)

Seasonality Analysis

Analysis has revealed that with a buy date of March 9 and a sell date of May 8, investors have benefited from a total return of 645.16% over the last 10 years. This scenario has shown positive results in 6 of those periods.

Conversely, the best return over the maximum number of positive periods reveals a buy date of September 17 and a sell date of October 14, producing a total return over the same 10-year range of 79.42% with positive results in 9 of those periods.

The buy and hold return for the past 10 years was -97.78%.

Technical Analysis

Support 2

Support 1

Pivot Point

Resistance1

Resistance2

The Numbers

25.16

28.97

31.88

35.69

38.60

Most Recent Close:

32.77

Support/Resistance Analys

Broke Upr Resistance (2)

52-Week High:

55.90

MACD Analysis:

Positive/Increasing

52-Week Low:

0.35

MACD vs. Signal:

Above/Widening

Fib. Retracement:

~ 61.8%

RSI Analysis:

Bullish

50-Day MA:

27.11

Stochastic (Fast) Analysis:

Increasingly Overbought

200-Day MA:

30.47

50 vs 200-Day MA Analysis:

50-day Below 200-Day MA

High Critical Level:

29.18

Year over Year Trend:

Strongly Gaining

Low Critical Value:

23.16

Critical Level Analysis:

Broke Above Previous Tren

Average Monthly Gain:

23.9%

MFI Analysis

Above 50 Advancing

Technical Rating:

Candlestick Analysis

Neutral/Indecision

On a scale of 1 to 10, the higher the rating, the more appealing the investment is to buy at current levels.

Situational Analysis

Past Year

Advancing Sessions %

Return %

10-Year Average

Advancing Sessions %

Return %

Mar 9 thru Apr 8

208.6

Mar 9 thru Apr 8

46.7

23.2

Best Return: 362.9% – Sell Mar 19

Best Return: 44.2% – Sell Mar 23

Mar 9 thru Jun 7

388.6

Mar 9 thru Jun 7

49.3

40.2

Best Return: 474.3% – Sell May 8

Best Return: 58% – Sell Apr 25

Mar 9 thru Sep 5

49.2

472.1

Mar 9 thru Sep 5

47.6

45.9

Best Return: 617.6% – Sell Aug 28

Best Return: 75.1% – Sell May 27

Following Earnings Releases – Last 12 Periods

During Equivalent Periods of Economic Recovery where Unemployment has Peaked

12-Period Average

Advancing Sessions %

Return %

2-Period Average

Advancing Sessions %

Return %

30 Days After

44.9

8.7

90 Days After

47.2

6.8

Best Return: 35% – After 10 Days on Average

Best Return: 10.9% – After 58 Days on Average

60 Days After

45.6

6.8

180 Days After

51.4

24.2

Best Return: 36.7% – After 21 Days on Average

Best Return: 27.6% – After 162 Days on Average

90 Days After

44.9

2.8

360 Days After

49.5

32.8

Best Return: 43.4% – After 24 Days on Average

Best Return: 39.1% – After 285 Days on Average

Further Analysis

Sector:

Financial

Industry:

Property & Casualty Insurance

According to Thackray’s 2010 Investors Guide, the period of seasonal strength for the Financial Sector ranges from January 19th through to April 13th. The seasonality corresponds to the time when banks report fourth quarter earnings and provide favourable guidance for the coming year.

Current Consensus Recommend:

Hold

Recommendation 1-Month Ago:

Hold

Recommendation 3-Months Ago:

Hold

Disclaimer

Analysis, comments, calculations, and opinions offered in this report, available via EquityClock.com, are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.