Market Outlook for March 5, 2010
Upcoming Events for Today:
- The Department of Labor will release the Employment report for February at 8:30am. Expectation is that the unemployment rate will see an increase to 9.8% versus 9.7% previous. Nonfarm payrolls are expected to decline to a loss of 63K versus 20K previous.
Due up for next week: Trade Balance, Retail sales, Inventories
The Markets
| Market | Close | % Change | Expected ST Low | Expected ST High |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) | 10,444.14 | 0.46% | 10,035.81 | 10,416.14 |
| Dow Jones Transportation Average (^DJT) | 4,160.18 | 0.29% | 3,852.87 | 4,139.85 |
| Dow Jones Utility Average (^DJU) | 374.21 | 0.17% | 367.11 | 387.13 |
| S&P 500 (^GSPC) | 1,122.97 | 0.37% | 1,068.32 | 1,116.90 |
| S&P/TSE Composite (^GSPTSE) | 11,824.97 | -0.24% | 11,205.03 | 11,754.18 |
| NASDAQ Composite (^IXIC) | 2,292.31 | 0.51% | 2,146.29 | 2,270.66 |
| Austrian Traded Index (^ATX) | 2,409.54 | -1.93% | 2,426.35 | 2,562.54 |
| French CAC 40 (^FCHI) | 3,828.41 | -0.37% | 3,612.86 | 3,809.44 |
| German DAX (^GDAXI) | 5,795.32 | -0.39% | 5,505.48 | 5,739.17 |
| UK FTSE 100 (^FTSE) | 5,527.20 | -0.11% | 5,122.17 | 5,428.80 |
| China HANG SENG INDEX (^HSI) | 20,575.78 | -1.44% | 19,845.14 | 20,952.30 |
| Korea KOSPI Composite Index (^KS11) | 1,618.20 | -0.26% | 1,574.32 | 1,678.74 |
| Tokyo NIKKEI 225 (^N225) | 10,145.72 | -1.05% | 10,019.86 | 10,532.15 |
| Swiss Market Index (^SSMI) | 6,804.90 | -0.12% | 6,355.37 | 6,750.64 |
| Brazilian IBOVESPA (^BVSP) | 67,815.00 | 0.26% | 64,183.35 | 68,249.03 |
| Mexico’s IPC (^MXX) | 32,202.00 | -0.47% | 30,554.76 | 32,100.13 |
| Amsterdam Exchange Index (^AEX) | 332.45 | 0.18% | 316.40 | 331.04 |
| New Zealand NZX 50 INDEX GROSS (^NZ50) | 3,213.56 | 0.47% | 3,081.48 | 3,196.49 |
Indices were mixed Thursday on the heels of favorable retail sales numbers and improving job loss reports. Market is waiting in anticipation of the Employment numbers to be release today before the market opens. Technical indicators remain mixed with decision on market direction to come along with the jobs numbers. Market sentiment using the put call ratio reveals a market that is overly bearish, showing an index volume put/call ratio of 1.55. This is a spike today well above the 10 day and 20 day average of 1.27 for each. If you believe in the contrarian view of this indicator, then this would indicate a time to buy, as the market has become too bearish for its own good.
Sectors that Moved the Market
| Sector | % Price Change | % Volume Change |
| Energy Sector | -0.52% | -2.60% |
| Basic Materials Sector | 0.68% | -5.20% |
| Financial Sector | 1.01% | -6.61% |
| Health Care Sector | -0.32% | 100.04% |
| Consumer Discretionary Sector | 0.91% | -12.44% |
| Industrials Sector | 0.48% | 32.59% |
| Technology Sector | 0.41% | -56.51% |
| Utilities Sector | 0.20% | 49.19% |
| Consumer Staples Sector | 0.33% | -27.61% |
Financials garnered the majority of the gains on the day, followed closely by consumer discretionary, which rallied on results from the retail sales. Health care show the most change in volume over previous day as investors continue to weigh the proposed health care reform.
S&P 500
Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com
| Support 2 | Support 1 | Pivot Point | Resistance 1 | Resistance 2 |
| 1114.05 | 1118.51 | 1121.12 | 1125.58 | 1128.19 |
The market may be at a short-term top if the jobs report expected to be released on Friday does not meet investors expectations. Candlesticks show a slowing up trend, that could be met by a sharp decline if doubt re-enters the market. The index is currently above its expected trading range by a small margin at close of business.
Total Returns
Yesterday: 0.37% – Trailing 5 days: 1.82% – Trailing 30 days: 1.78%
Averages for current day based on past 20 years of data
- Current Day: 0.01% with 53.33% of sessions gaining
- Next 7 days: 0.16% with 51.00% of sessions gaining (Max return: 1.19% by March 8 on Average)
- Next 30 days: 1.45% with 51.56% of sessions gaining (Max return: 3.88% by March 22 on Average)
TSE Composite
Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com
| Support 2 | Support 1 | Pivot Point | Resistance 1 | Resistance 2 |
| 11746.99 | 11785.98 | 11831.34 | 11870.33 | 11915.69 |
Canadian markets have witnessed a decent rally since mid February, buoyed by strength in materials and energy. In keeping with the candlesticks, signs of a short term top may be apparent. A short range selloff at current levels may be in order to bring liquid holdings back into the market to allow for upcoming sector plays in undervalued and depreciated assets, such as financials. The index is currently above its short term trading range, however a new trend is expected to be formed, raising the expected high and low values to around the 50-day moving average.
Total Returns
Yesterday: -0.24% – Trailing 5 days: 0.99% – Trailing 30 days: 6.26%
Averages for current day based on past 10 years of data
- Current Day: -0.17% with 42.86% of sessions gaining
- Next 7 days: –0.01% with 44.50% of sessions gaining (Max return: 1.41% by March 6 on Average)
- Next 30 days: 1.48% with 52.69% of sessions gaining (Max return: 4.05% by March 17 on Average)
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Comments (2)
Great info! Keep up the good work! Is it possible to get the Min return (i.e.: max loss) in the 7 day and 30 day outlooks?
Thanks!
Ron
Hi Ron, that’s a great idea. Thanks for the suggestion. Let me see what I can come up with to provide indication of this downside potential.
Jon