Wells Fargo & Company (Public, NYSE:WFC) – Clock That Stock
The Stock
Wells Fargo & Company (Public, NYSE:WFC) was highlighted last week as a possible entry point into this company, and sector, that customarily see the first signs of strength around this period. Since that report, the stock is up marginally over the period.
The Financial sector is up around 1% by mid-day today, with Wells Fargo seeing gains of almost 3%. Investors are beginning to look to the long term potential of stocks in this sector that are still trading very close to book value. Institutions are showing their desire to hold this equity, acquiring shares in bulk as of recent. The fundamental prospects for this stock are sound, and growth is in the cards. The stock is currently trading in the mid to high ranges of its expected scale of 27.02 to 28.46, however with seasonal and fundamental influences expected to come into play within the next couple of months, exceeding this range is not out of the question.
Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com
The Clock
The Financial sector has witnessed dramatic appreciation over the last 10 years in the period between March 9th and May 9th, with gains on average of over 10%; positive returns were witnessed in 8 of the last 10 periods. The stock follows a similar seasonal profile, with equivalent results over the time range.
| Wells Fargo & Co (WFC) 27.35 | + 0.01 (0.04%) | ||||||||||||||||||||
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| Seasonality Analysis | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Analysis has revealed that with a buy date of March 6 and a sell date of September 20, investors have benefited from a total return of 708.73% over the last 10 years. This scenario has shown positive results in 7 of those periods. | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Conversely, the best return over the maximum number of positive periods reveals a buy date of March 12 and a sell date of August 24, producing a total return over the same 10-year range of 314.29% with positive results in 10 of those periods. | |||||||||||||||||||||
| The buy and hold return for the past 10 years was 78.53%. | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Technical Analysis | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Support 2 | Support 1 | Pivot Point | Resistance1 | Resistance2 | The Numbers | ||||||||||||||||
| 26.92 | 27.14 | 27.36 | 27.58 | 27.80 | Most Recent Close: | 27.35 | |||||||||||||||
| Support/Resistance Analys | Neutral | 52-Week High: | 31.53 | ||||||||||||||||||
| MACD Analysis: | Negative/Decreasing | 52-Week Low: | 7.80 | ||||||||||||||||||
| MACD vs. Signal: | Above/Thinning | Fib. Retracement: | ~ 78.6% | ||||||||||||||||||
| RSI Analysis: | Below 50 | 50-Day MA: | 27.54 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Stochastic (Fast) Analysis: | Neutral | 200-Day MA: | 26.78 | ||||||||||||||||||
| 50 vs 200-Day MA Analysis: | 50-day Above 200-Day MA | High Critical Level: | 28.46 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Year over Year Trend: | Strongly Gaining | Low Critical Value: | 27.02 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Critical Level Analysis: | Within Critical Levels | Average Monthly Gain: | 12.7% | ||||||||||||||||||
| MFI Analysis | Below 50 Rebounding | Technical Rating: | 8 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Candlestick Analysis | Neutral/Indecision | On a scale of 1 to 10, the higher the rating, the more appealing the investment is to buy at current levels. | |||||||||||||||||||
| Situational Analysis | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Past Year | Advancing Sessions % | Return % | 10-Year Average | Advancing Sessions % | Return % | ||||||||||||||||
| Mar 1 thru Mar 31 | 45.5 | 17.7 | Mar 1 thru Mar 31 | 44.1 | 3.3 | ||||||||||||||||
| Best Return: 43.2% – Sell Mar 23 | Best Return: 9.5% – Sell Mar 16 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Mar 1 thru May 30 | 50.8 | 111.2 | Mar 1 thru May 30 | 49.4 | 16.2 | ||||||||||||||||
| Best Return: 133.4% – Sell May 8 | Best Return: 21.9% – Sell May 2 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Mar 1 thru Aug 28 | 52 | 126.5 | Mar 1 thru Aug 28 | 49.8 | 19.6 | ||||||||||||||||
| Best Return: 138.6% – Sell Aug 7 | Best Return: 25.6% – Sell Jun 22 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Following Earnings Releases – Last 11 Periods | During Equivalent Periods of Economic Recovery where Unemployment has Peaked | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 11-Period Average | Advancing Sessions % | Return % | 2-Period Average | Advancing Sessions % | Return % | ||||||||||||||||
| 30 Days After | 48.1 | 6.4 | 90 Days After | 46.8 | 1.4 | ||||||||||||||||
| Best Return: 16.5% – After 13 Days on Average | Best Return: 3.6% – After 13 Days on Average | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 60 Days After | 47.2 | 5.4 | 180 Days After | 52.4 | 16.8 | ||||||||||||||||
| Best Return: 18.3% – After 22 Days on Average | Best Return: 16.8% – After 177 Days on Average | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 90 Days After | 47.2 | 5 | 360 Days After | 49.7 | 28.3 | ||||||||||||||||
| Best Return: 21.6% – After 36 Days on Average | Best Return: 35% – After 307 Days on Average | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Further Analysis | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Sector: | Financial | Industry: | Money Center Banks | ||||||||||||||||||
| According to Thackray’s 2010 Investors Guide, the period of seasonal strength for the Financial Sector ranges from January 19th through to April 13th. The seasonality corresponds to the time when banks report fourth quarter earnings and provide favourable guidance for the coming year. | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Current Consensus Recommend: | Outperform | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Recommendation 1-Month Ago: | Outperform | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Recommendation 3-Months Ago: | Outperform | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Disclaimer | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Analysis, comments, calculations, and opinions offered in this report, available via EquityClock.com, are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed. | |||||||||||||||||||||
| © 2010 EquityClock.com, member of the Tech Talk Financial Network | |||||||||||||||||||||
Stocks mentioned in this post: WFC
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