Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) – Clock That Stock
The Stock
A report this morning from the Semiconductor Industry Association said chip sales in January were more than 47% higher than the same year ago period. The group cites an improving economic and industry environment, as well as increased demand for personal computing devices, as the reason behind this monumental growth. Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL), as a result, is up over 2% on the news.
With Apple expected to release its highly anticipated tablet device, the iPad, the appreciation in the stock price is not expected to fade any time soon. This stock started its strong appreciation last week when rumors of stock splits and dividends of the major Tech player spread throughout the market, bolstering the stock, and once again bringing investors attention onto growth prospects present within the company. Fundamentals for this tech player are sound and primed for growth. The stock is trading near the top of its expected trading range of 194.70 to 209.08.
Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com
The Clock
This stock has a very good seasonal profile between now and the beginning of May. This is a significant extension from that of the sector that customarily tops out in January. The profile is following closely to strength within the market as a whole, but also benefitting from a favorable consumer discretionary sector.
| Apple Inc. (AAPL) 204.62 | + 2.62 (1.3%) | ||||||||||||||||||
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| Seasonality Analysis | |||||||||||||||||||
| Analysis has revealed that with a buy date of October 7 and a sell date of September 20, investors have benefited from a total return of 4192.52% over the last 10 years. This scenario has shown positive results in 7 of those periods. | |||||||||||||||||||
| Conversely, the best return over the maximum number of positive periods reveals a buy date of October 10 and a sell date of July 16, producing a total return over the same 10-year range of 2498.96% with positive results in 10 of those periods. | |||||||||||||||||||
| The buy and hold return for the past 10 years was 719.96%. | |||||||||||||||||||
| Technical Analysis | |||||||||||||||||||
| Support 2 | Support 1 | Pivot Point | Resistance1 | Resistance2 | The Numbers | ||||||||||||||
| 200.76 | 202.69 | 203.93 | 205.86 | 207.10 | Most Recent Close: | 204.62 | |||||||||||||
| Support/Resistance Analys | Broke Lwr Resistance (1) | 52-Week High: | 215.59 | ||||||||||||||||
| MACD Analysis: | Negative/Increasing | 52-Week Low: | 82.33 | ||||||||||||||||
| MACD vs. Signal: | Above/Widening | Fib. Retracement: | ~ 100% | ||||||||||||||||
| RSI Analysis: | Bullish | 50-Day MA: | 203.06 | ||||||||||||||||
| Stochastic (Fast) Analysis: | Increasingly Overbought | 200-Day MA: | 177.28 | ||||||||||||||||
| 50 vs 200-Day MA Analysis: | 50-day Above 200-Day MA | High Critical Level: | 209.08 | ||||||||||||||||
| Year over Year Trend: | Strongly Gaining | Low Critical Value: | 194.70 | ||||||||||||||||
| Critical Level Analysis: | Within Critical Levels | Average Monthly Gain: | 11.0% | ||||||||||||||||
| MFI Analysis | Above 50 Declining | Technical Rating: | 9 | ||||||||||||||||
| Candlestick Analysis | Bullish | On a scale of 1 to 10, the higher the rating, the more appealing the investment is to buy at current levels. | |||||||||||||||||
| Situational Analysis | |||||||||||||||||||
| Past Year | Advancing Sessions % | Return % | 10-Year Average | Advancing Sessions % | Return % | ||||||||||||||
| Feb 28 thru Mar 30 | 47.6 | 17 | Feb 28 thru Mar 30 | 51.2 | 8.2 | ||||||||||||||
| Best Return: 23% – Sell Mar 26 | Best Return: 13.7% – Sell Mar 16 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Feb 28 thru May 29 | 58.7 | 52.1 | Feb 28 thru May 29 | 50.5 | 16.1 | ||||||||||||||
| Best Return: 52.1% – Sell May 29 | Best Return: 28.3% – Sell Apr 27 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Feb 28 thru Aug 27 | 58.7 | 89.7 | Feb 28 thru Aug 27 | 51.1 | 24.6 | ||||||||||||||
| Best Return: 89.7% – Sell Aug 27 | Best Return: 40.7% – Sell Jun 20 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Following Earnings Releases – Last 12 Periods | During Equivalent Periods of Economic Recovery where Unemployment has Peaked | ||||||||||||||||||
| 12-Period Average | Advancing Sessions % | Return % | 2-Period Average | Advancing Sessions % | Return % | ||||||||||||||
| 30 Days After | 52.6 | 1.3 | After 90 Days | 49.2 | 1.7 | ||||||||||||||
| Best Return: 9.8% – After 15 Days on Average | Best Return: 11.1% – After 74 Days on Average | ||||||||||||||||||
| 60 Days After | 53.2 | 6.5 | After 180 Days | 49.2 | 15.4 | ||||||||||||||
| Best Return: 12.7% – After 30 Days on Average | Best Return: 27.2% – After 140 Days on Average | ||||||||||||||||||
| 90 Days After | 53.4 | 10.5 | After 360 Days | 49.9 | 29.4 | ||||||||||||||
| Best Return: 22.5% – After 66 Days on Average | Best Return: 54.9% – After 276 Days on Average | ||||||||||||||||||
| Further Analysis | |||||||||||||||||||
| Sector: | Technology | Industry: | Personal Computers | ||||||||||||||||
| According to Thackray’s 2010 Investors Guide, the period of seasonal strength for the Technology Sector ranges from October 9th through to January 17th. The seasonality ends around the time of the Consumer Electronics Show at the beginning of January and before earnings are finished being reported for the previous quarter in which holiday sales contributes significantly to the bottom line. | |||||||||||||||||||
| Current Consensus Recommend: | Outperform | ||||||||||||||||||
| Recommendation 1-Month Ago: | Outperform | ||||||||||||||||||
| Recommendation 3-Months Ago: | Outperform | ||||||||||||||||||
| Disclaimer | |||||||||||||||||||
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Analysis, comments, calculations, and opinions offered in this report, available via EquityClock.com, are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed. Disclosure: Mr. Vialoux does own position in Apple. |
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| © 2010 EquityClock.com, member of the Tech Talk Financial Network | |||||||||||||||||||
Stocks mentioned in this post: AAPL
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