Market Outlook for February 25, 2010
Upcoming Events for Today:
- Weekly Jobless Claims are to be reported by the Department of Labor at 8:30am. Consensus is a decline to 460K versus 473K previous. Continuing claims are expected to come in at 4570K versus 4563K previous.
- The Department of Commerce is set to release the Durable Goods Orders for January at 8:30am. Consensus is a gain to 1.5% versus 1.0% previously. Durable goods ex-Transportation is expected to decline to 1.0% versus 1.4% previous.
Due up for tomorrow: GDP revision, Regional Manufacturing Survey, Consumer Sentiment, Existing Home Sales
The Markets
| Market | Close | % Change | Expected ST Low | Expected ST High |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) | 10,374.16 | 0.89% | 10,035.81 | 10,616.97 |
| Dow Jones Transportation Average (^DJT) | 4,095.79 | 0.74% | 3,852.87 | 4,184.65 |
| Dow Jones Utility Average (^DJU) | 371.71 | 0.10% | 367.46 | 398.26 |
| S&P 500 (^GSPC) | 1,105.24 | 0.97% | 1,068.32 | 1,138.12 |
| S&P/TSE Composite (^GSPTSE) | 11,521.83 | -0.04% | 11,205.03 | 11,753.39 |
| NASDAQ Composite (^IXIC) | 2,235.90 | 1.01% | 2,146.29 | 2,294.10 |
| Austrian Traded Index (^ATX) | 2,498.19 | -0.15% | 2,437.49 | 2,664.27 |
| French CAC 40 (^FCHI) | 3,715.68 | 0.23% | 3,614.41 | 3,943.33 |
| German DAX (^GDAXI) | 5,615.51 | 0.20% | 5,504.54 | 5,878.57 |
| UK FTSE 100 (^FTSE) | 5,342.90 | 0.52% | 5,122.17 | 5,449.25 |
| China HANG SENG INDEX (^HSI) | 20,467.74 | -0.75% | 19,845.14 | 21,693.08 |
| Korea KOSPI Composite Index (^KS11) | 1,612.83 | -0.99% | 1,575.40 | 1,702.54 |
| Tokyo NIKKEI 225 (^N225) | 10,198.83 | -1.48% | 10,027.13 | 10,829.43 |
| Swiss Market Index (^SSMI) | 6,688.00 | 0.59% | 6,355.37 | 6,658.06 |
| Brazilian IBOVESPA (^BVSP) | 65,795.00 | -0.47% | 64,183.35 | 69,804.78 |
| Mexico’s IPC (^MXX) | 31,788.54 | -0.19% | 30,554.76 | 32,471.29 |
| Amsterdam Exchange Index (^AEX) | 320.92 | -0.02% | 316.47 | 337.60 |
| New Zealand NZX 50 INDEX GROSS (^NZ50) | 3,130.88 | 0.14% | 3,081.48 | 3,242.23 |
Markets around the world were mixed Wednesday. US markets rallied after comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke committed to keeping interest rates low. Stocks gained as investors took an optimistic view concerning the economic situation. Technicals are fairly indecisive at current levels, and short tem prospects are relatively flat.
Sectors that Moved the Markets
| Sector | % Price Change | % Volume Change |
| Energy Sector | 0.63% | -16.45% |
| Basic Materials Sector | -0.25% | -20.49% |
| Financial Sector | 1.74% | -39.65% |
| Health Care Sector | 0.74% | 0.89% |
| Consumer Discretionary Sector | 1.30% | 10.67% |
| Industrials Sector | 1.02% | -44.07% |
| Technology Sector | 0.98% | -28.10% |
| Utilities Sector | 0.10% | -9.98% |
| Consumer Staples Sector | 0.63% | -51.00% |
Financials showed the greatest gains on the day, followed by consumer discretionary and industrials. Only health care and consumer discretionary showed volumes greater than the day previous. Volumes were considerably lower as investors put gains back into the market.
S&P 500
Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com
| Support 2 | Support 1 | Pivot Point | Resistance 1 | Resistance 2 |
| 1091.47 | 1098.35 | 1102.39 | 1109.27 | 1113.31 |
The market is holding fairly close to its 50-day moving average as investors remain indecisive regarding market direction. Short-Term expected trading range is 1,068.32 to 1,138.12.
Total Returns
Yesterday: 0.97% – Trailing 5 days: 0.52% – Trailing 30 days: 0.77%
Averages for current day based on past 20 years of data
- Current Day: 0.30% with 71.43% of sessions gaining
- Next 7 days: –0.36% with 50.00% of sessions gaining (Max return: 1.11% if held until Feb 27.)
- Next 30 days: 1.59% with 53.03% of sessions gaining (Max return: 3.73% if held until Mar 11.)
TSE Composite
Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com
| Support 2 | Support 1 | Pivot Point | Resistance 1 | Resistance 2 |
| 11441.38 | 11481.60 | 11533.00 | 11573.22 | 11624.62 |
Canadian markets are showing much of the same, despite being down on the day. The indecisiveness extends to the Canadian markets as well, revealing the same moving average guide as it’s American counterpart. Short-term expected trading range is 11,205.03 to 11,753.39.
Total Returns
Yesterday: –0.04% – Trailing 5 days: 0.45% – Trailing 30 days: 1.57%
Averages for current day based on past 10 years of data
- Current Day: 0.48% with 71.43% of sessions gaining
- Next 7 days: 0.15% with 56.00% of sessions gaining (Max return: 1.99% if held until Feb 28.)
- Next 30 days: 1.81% with 51.41% of sessions gaining (Max return: 4.59% if held until Mar 8.)
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