Equity Clock

Autodesk, Inc. (NASDAQ:ADSK) – Clock That Stock

Clock_That_Stock

The Stock

Autodesk, Inc. (NASDAQ:ADSK) reported better than expected earnings yesterday that has resulted in a breakout of the stock today, rallying to gains of around 10%. Earnings for this company came in at $0.30 a share that beat expectations by 7 cents.

The current price of the stock is fairly close to the fundamental valuation of this equity, however the long-term growth prospects are extremely favorable. The company provides design software and services that are used in a wide variety of industries, from entertainment to engineering and construction. This equity provides an ideal instrument to take advantage of the gains expected in the Technology sector in the current year, as well as leveraging the expected growth in manufacturing as the economy gets back on its feet. Fundamental prospects put this stock at a high value close to $30, with the potential for much more if its growth trend continues. The price is currently ahead of its expected trading range of 23.41 to 26.23, therefore a pullback may be in order.

Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com

The Clock

This stock has shown a history of spiking exactly around this timeframe as earnings are released for the last quarter in their fiscal year. This stock has much of the qualities of a buy-and-hold investment, however seasonal influences on the Technology sector as a whole do provide favorable impacts on the valuation of this equity. This stock has shown appreciation on average leading into June as guidance for the fiscal year is provided. Below is the technical and seasonal profile up to and including yesterday’s date.

Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK) 25.66

-0.42 (-1.61%)

Seasonality Analysis

Analysis has revealed that with a buy date of July 27 and a sell date of June 7, investors have benefited from a total return of 1190.47% over the last 10 years. This scenario has shown positive results in 7 of those periods.

Conversely, the best return over the maximum number of positive periods reveals a buy date of July 25 and a sell date of September 14, producing a total return over the same 10-year range of 305.29% with positive results in 10 of those periods.

The buy and hold return for the past 10 years was 212.55%.

Technical Analysis

Support 2

Support 1

Pivot Point

Resistance1

Resistance2

The Numbers

25.21

25.43

25.80

26.02

26.39

Most Recent Close:

25.66

Support/Resistance Analys

Broke Upr Support (1)

52-Week High:

27.97

MACD Analysis:

Positive/Increasing

52-Week Low:

11.70

MACD vs. Signal:

Above/Thinning

Fib. Retracement:

~ 78.6%

RSI Analysis:

Above 50

50-Day MA:

24.94

Stochastic (Fast) Analysis:

Bearish Crossover

200-Day MA:

23.34

50 vs 200-Day MA Analysis:

50-day Above 200-Day MA

High Critical Level:

26.23

Year over Year Trend:

Strongly Gaining

Low Critical Value:

23.41

Critical Level Analysis:

Within Critical Levels

Average Monthly Gain:

6.2%

MFI Analysis

Bearish Crossover

Technical Rating:

Candlestick Analysis

Downward Momentum

On a scale of 1 to 10, the higher the rating, the more appealing the investment is to buy at current levels.

Situational Analysis

Past Year

Advancing Sessions %

Return %

10-Year Average

Advancing Sessions %

Return %

Feb 23 thru Mar 25

6.3

Feb 23 thru Mar 25

46.4

3.8

Best Return: 6.3% – Sell Mar 25

Best Return: 12% – Sell Mar 8

Feb 23 thru May 24

52.4

43.8

Feb 23 thru May 24

51.4

6.6

Best Return: 43.8% – Sell May 22

Best Return: 23.3% – Sell Apr 23

Feb 23 thru Aug 22

54.8

70.3

Feb 23 thru Aug 22

52.3

12.9

Best Return: 76.4% – Sell Aug 14

Best Return: 31.8% – Sell Jun 2

Following Earnings Releases – Last 11 Periods

During Equivalent Periods of Economic Recovery where Unemployment has Peaked

11-Period Average

Advancing Sessions %

Return %

2-Period Average

Advancing Sessions %

Return %

Nov 17 thru Dec 17

51.1

1.5

Jul 1 thru Sep 29

14.2

Best Return: 6.7% – Sell Dec 5

Best Return: 22% – Sell Sep 8

Nov 17 thru Jan 16

51.6

0.4

Jul 1 thru Dec 28

34.8

Best Return: 12.4% – Sell Dec 22

Best Return: 47.9% – Sell Dec 2

Nov 17 thru Feb 15

51.9

1.6

Jul 1 thru Jun 25

54.9

95.6

Best Return: 15.9% – Sell Jan 11

Best Return: 99.5% – Sell Jun 20

Further Analysis

Sector:

Technology

Industry:

Technical & System Software

According to Thackray’s 2010 Investors Guide, the period of seasonal strength for the Technology Sector ranges from October 9th through to January 17th. The seasonality ends around the time of the Consumer Electronics Show at the beginning of January and before earnings are finished being reported for the previous quarter in which holiday sales contributes significantly to the bottom line.

Current Consensus Recommend:

Outperform

Recommendation 1-Month Ago:

Hold

Disclaimer

Analysis, comments, calculations, and opinions offered in this report, available via EquityClock.com, are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.