Toyota Motor Corp (NYSE:TM) – Clock That Stock
The Stock
Beaten down as of recent due to the massive recalls, Toyota Motor Corp (NYSE:TM) has been clawing back from its short-term lows. However, is this a viable investment at current levels? The technicals are lining up for a “buy” opportunity, with improving MACD, RSI and stochastics. As well, we are beginning to see outperformance compared to the index, further implying that a bottom has been reached. The probable short-term trading range is 73.87 – 90.33, implying a high-side return of over 19%.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com
The Clock
The seasonality of Toyota follows very closely to the sector in which it operates. Over the short-term gains have been in flux based on past history, with influences finally kicking in around the beginning of March.
| Toyota Motor Corporation (TM) 75.69 | + 1.09 (1.46%) | ||||||||||||||||||||
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| Seasonality Analysis | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Analysis has revealed that with a buy date of October 22 and a sell date of May 5, investors have benefited from a total return of 193.26% over the last 10 years. This scenario has shown positive results in 6 of those periods. | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Conversely, the best return over the maximum number of positive periods reveals a buy date of October 25 and a sell date of January 2, producing a total return over the same 10-year range of 104.43% with positive results in 9 of those periods. | |||||||||||||||||||||
| The buy and hold return for the past 10 years was -8.68%. | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Technical Analysis | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Support 2 | Support 1 | Pivot Point | Resistance1 | Resistance2 | The Numbers | ||||||||||||||||
| 74.48 | 75.09 | 75.60 | 76.21 | 76.72 | Most Recent Close: | 75.69 | |||||||||||||||
| Support/Resistance Analys | Broke Lwr Resistance (1) | 52-Week High: | 91.97 | ||||||||||||||||||
| MACD Analysis: | Negative/Increasing | 52-Week Low: | 56.79 | ||||||||||||||||||
| MACD vs. Signal: | Below/Thinning | Fib. Retracement: | ~ 50.0% | ||||||||||||||||||
| RSI Analysis: | Below 50 | 50-Day MA: | 83.17 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Stochastic (Fast) Analysis: | Bullish Crossover | 200-Day MA: | 80.57 | ||||||||||||||||||
| 50 vs 200-Day MA Analysis: | 50-day Above 200-Day MA | High Critical Level: | 90.33 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Year over Year Trend: | Strongly Gaining | Low Critical Value: | 73.87 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Critical Level Analysis: | Within Critical Levels | Average Monthly Gain: | 1.0% | ||||||||||||||||||
| MFI Analysis | Below 50 Rebounding | Technical Rating: | 10 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Candlestick Analysis | Fading Selling Pressure | On a scale of 1 to 10, the higher the rating, the more appealing the investment is to buy at current levels. | |||||||||||||||||||
| Situational Analysis | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Past Year | Advancing Sessions % | Return % | 10-Year Average | Advancing Sessions % | Return % | ||||||||||||||||
| Feb 10 thru Mar 12 | 38.1 | -11.1 | Feb 10 thru Mar 12 | 51.3 | 0.4 | ||||||||||||||||
| Best Return: 0.3% – Sell Feb 12 | Best Return: 4.7% – Sell Feb 23 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Feb 10 thru May 11 | 51.6 | 14.2 | Feb 10 thru May 11 | 49.5 | 2.2 | ||||||||||||||||
| Best Return: 24.2% – Sell May 6 | Best Return: 12.2% – Sell Mar 24 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Feb 10 thru Aug 9 | 51.6 | 26.9 | Feb 10 thru Aug 9 | 48.8 | 1.4 | ||||||||||||||||
| Best Return: 29.7% – Sell Aug 3 | Best Return: 15.7% – Sell Apr 24 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Four Year Presidential Cycle: Through Mid-Term Election Years | Following Earnings Release | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 4-Period Average | Advancing Sessions % | Return % | 10-Period Average | Advancing Sessions % | Return % | ||||||||||||||||
| Feb 10 thru Mar 12 | 51.8 | 5.3 | 30-Days Following | 46.4 | -4.5 | ||||||||||||||||
| Best Return: 9% – Sell Feb 26 | Best Return: 1.8% – Hold for 16 days following | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Feb 10 thru May 11 | 48.3 | 6.3 | 60-Days Following | 45.2 | -6.3 | ||||||||||||||||
| Best Return: 13% – Sell Mar 21 | Best Return: 2.7% – Hold for 28 days following | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Feb 10 thru Aug 9 | 46.3 | 3.9 | 90-Days Following | 47.5 | -3.8 | ||||||||||||||||
| Best Return: 16.7% – Sell Apr 19 | Best Return: 5.4% – Hold for 40 days following | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Further Analysis | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Sector: | Consumer Discretionary | Industry: | Auto Manufacturers – Major | ||||||||||||||||||
| According to Thackray’s 2010 Investors Guide, the period of seasonal strength for the Consumer Discretionary Sector ranges from October 28th through to April 22nd. Corresponding to the seasonality of the broad market, this sector finds strength from consumers buying/upgrading large ticket items (cars, homes, etc.) during late winter & early spring, and of course let’s not forget the holiday buying season. This sector peaks just before equity markets top out in May. | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Current Consensus Recommend: | Outperform | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Recommendation 1-Month Ago: | Outperform | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Recommendation 3-Months Ago: | Outperform | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Disclaimer | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Analysis, comments, calculations, and opinions offered in this report, available via EquityClock.com, are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed. | |||||||||||||||||||||
| © 2010 EquityClock.com, member of the Tech Talk Financial Network | |||||||||||||||||||||
Stocks mentioned in this post: TM
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